Intermarket Groove: il toro riprende quota

Intanto però…
“Mark Mobius, gestore di Franklin Templeton, oggi considerato uno dei massimi esperti mondiali di paesi emergenti, si aspetta una crisi dovuta ai derivati che ammontano a 10 volte il Pil mondiale..”
WOW. Insomma se mettono una pezza (Grecia) da una parte si crea una voragine dall’altra
Beh che dire già si sapeva dei CDS quindi la cosa non mi stupisce, però questo fà riflettere su una cosa: per una ripresa economia reale tante, troppe cose dovrebbero cambiare per questo sono “obiettivamente pessimista” in merito.
Poi chissà come diceva Felice Caccamo “Beato che se ò fà o sofà”. Ah no forse questo non centra nulla

Volevo scrivere un post su questo parere di Mobius. Poi ho lasciato eprdere acnhe perchè, alla fine, dice cose che ripetiamo spesso. Per carità, Mobius è un grandissimo e noi siamo veramente nessuno. Quanto lui ha detto è assolutamente corretto ed evidente, secondo me.
E visto che ne abbiamo parlato, eccovi l’articolo di Bloomberg su Mark Mobius.

May 30 (Bloomberg) — Mark Mobius, executive chairman of
Templeton Asset Management´s emerging markets group, said
another financial crisis is inevitable because the causes of the
previous one haven´t been resolved.
“There is definitely going to be another financial crisis
around the corner because we haven´t solved any of the things
that caused the previous crisis,” Mobius said at the Foreign
Correspondents´ Club of Japan in Tokyo today in response to a
question about price swings. “Are the derivatives regulated? No.
Are you still getting growth in derivatives? Yes.”
The total value of derivatives in the world exceeds total
global gross domestic product by a factor of 10, said Mobius,
who oversees more than $50 billion. With that volume of bets in
different directions, volatility and equity market crises will
occur, he said.
The global financial crisis three years ago was caused in
part by the proliferation of derivative products tied to U.S.
home loans that ceased performing, triggering hundreds of
billions of dollars in writedowns and leading to the collapse of
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008. The MSCI AC
World Index of developed and emerging market stocks tumbled 46
percent between Lehman´s downfall and the market bottom on March
9, 2009.
“With every crisis comes great opportunity,” said Mobius.
When markets are crashing, “that´s when we´re going to be able
to invest and do a good job,” he said.
The freezing of global credit markets caused governments
from Washington to Beijing to London to pump more than $3
trillion into the financial system to shore up the global
economy. The MSCI AC World gauge surged 99 percent from its
March 2009 low through May 27.

The largest U.S. banks have grown larger since the
financial crisis, and the number of “too-big-to-fail” banks
will increase by 40 percent over the next 15 years, according to
data compiled by Bloomberg.
Separately, higher capital requirements and greater
supervision should be imposed on institutions deemed “too
important to fail” to reduce the chances of large-scale
failures, staff at the International Monetary Fund warned in a
report on May 27.
“Are the banks bigger than they were before? They´re
bigger,” Mobius said. “Too big to fail.”
The money manager had earlier said at the same event that
Africa has an “incredible” investment potential and that he
has stakes in Nigerian banks.
“These banks are doing very well and are much better
regulated than they were in the past,” Mobius said, without
disclosing which lenders he holds.
Banks account for five of the eight stocks in the MSCI
Nigeria Index. Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, the country´s No. 2
lender by market value, surged 31 percent in the six months
through May 27, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Shares
of Access Bank Nigeria Plc recorded the second-biggest decline
on the gauge in the period, the data show.

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