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Esposizione al debito pubblico Eurozona: aggiornamento
Scritto il 19 Settembre 2011 alle 09:41 da
Eurozona ed esposizione banche al debito dei PIIGS. Ecco perché le banche dell’UE sono “too big to fail” ma anche “too big to rescue”
Come vi ho già detto molte volte, un grafico spesso e volentieri vale più di mille parole, in quanto viene espresso in modo spiccio, concreto e diretto, senza fronzoli e commenti fuorivianti, la relatà delle cose.
Questi grafici, creati da Thompson Reuters, ci danno la possibilità di riassumere in modo efficace lo stato attuale delle cose in ambito di “esposizione al debito pubblico” dei vari paesi Euro ai PIIGS, questo alla vigilia di una settimana che si presenta secondo me molto problematica, dove i rendimenti dei bond greci hanno ormai raggiunti livelli inenarrabili e che sottointendono solo una questione: non si tratta di capire SE la Grecia farà default, ma QUANDO e come verrà gestita la cosa, soprattutto dopo avere alle spalle un’esperienza ben nota a tutti, esperienza che si chiama Lehman Brothers.
E allora, visto che il problema fondamentale sarà la GESTIONE del default e dell’effetto domino che ne deriverà, soprattutto come ben noto per il settore bancario, andiamo a vedere i grafici delle varie esposizioni al debito pubblico delle varie banche dell’area Euro.
Esposizione al debito pubblico della Grecia
Come potete vedere è soprattutto una questione franco tedesca…
Esposizione al debito pubblico dell’Italia
I cugini di Francia e subito dietro la Germania. Anche qui l’asse franco tedesco fa la differenza.
Esposizione al debito pubblico della Spagna
Ancora loro! Francia e Germania sugli scudi… Sempre terza l’UK.
Esposizione al debito pubblico del Portogallo
Ovvia la predominanza della Spagna.
Esposizione al debito pubblico dell’Irlanda
E infine un grafico tratto da ZeroHedge, dove si vede l’impatto e l’importanza delle banche nel tessuto economico europeo. E soprattutto ci fa vedere cosa significa “Too Big to Fail” e anche “too big to rescue”
guardate per esempio le dimensioni delle due banche svizzere. Per carità, non succederà nulla, ma…chi avrebbe potenzialmente di salvare UBS e Credit Suisse? Non certo lo stato elvetico… Ma soprattutto, buttate un occhio a Gran Bretagna (con ben 3 banche sopra il PIL a livello di asset), la Francia (capito ora perchè si parla tanto dei cugini transalpini), la Germania e l’Olanda… e non è un caso, signori, che vi ho citato volutamente dei paesi oggi a TRIPLA AAA di merito come rating.
Potenzialmente non esiste da nessuna parte un vero “safe haven”, il porto sicuro. Tanto meno in questo momento…
Allacciamo le cinture ragazzi, si riparte… Buona settimana a tutti!
STAY TUNED!
DT
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9 commenti Commenta
candlestick
Scritto il 19 Settembre 2011 at 10:02
Grande Dream, sempre analisi esaustive!!
La settimana è appena iniziata, stiamo a vedere quali decisioni verranno prese in casa FED dopo il 20 e 21 settembre, in ogni caso questa esposizione del debito italiano nei confronti degli altri paesi è pericolosa, ma d’altro lato la partecipazione così elevata di paesi come la Francia e la Germania un po’ mi tranquillizza… Ci penseranno un secondo in più in ambito di default a lasciarci fuori… Qua trovate una sintesi sulla situazione dell’andamento dell’euro e SP 500.. Buona settimana a tutti!
http://www.leapfuture.blogspot.com/
Scritto il 19 Settembre 2011 at 10:11
mariothegreat@finanza:
E che problema c’e’? Stampiamo ancora una caionato di euroavatar e risolto il problema no?
E’ chiaro che volevo dire camionata…
Scritto il 19 Settembre 2011 at 10:17
Un po di notizie per i piu’ pigri:
United Kingdom – Ireland
Lloyds Banking Group announced Lord Leitch will retire from the Board and as Chairman of Scottish Widows Group at end-2011 and Group Finance Director Tim Tookey will leave the Bank after February 2012.
Rolls-Royce said it has won a contract from TUI Travel Plc to provide Trent 700 engines to power two Airbus A330 aircraft which will also be covered by the Co’s TotalCare long-term support services.
PZ Cussons Plc provided an Interim Management Statement covering June 1 to September 18: “The Board is pleased to announce that the performance of the Group during the period has been in line with management expectations. The financial position of the Group remains strong with cash generation during the period also in line with expectations. (…) Trading momentum in most markets is positive giving cause for optimism.”
Ocado Group issued an Interim Management Statement: “- Gross sales increased 19.5% to £444.6M for the 36 weeks to 7 August 2011. – Gross sales increased 16.9% to £147.9M for the 12 weeks to 7 August 2011. – Average orders per week for the 12 weeks to 7 August 2011: 110,945 (92,834 in equivalent period in 2010). -Average order size for the 12 weeks to 7 August 2011: £111.08 (£113.59 in equivalent period in 2010).”
Dairy Crest Group said in its Trading Update: “Dairy Crest’s trading in the first half of the year has been in line with our expectations. Operational efficiencies and selling price increases have broadly offset higher input costs. Higher property profits will result in overall profits for the first half being slightly ahead of the same period last year.”
Tesco Plc may bid for Lloyds Banking Group’s Garden Centre Group reported the Sunday Times.
The UK Markit Household Finance Index (HFI) index rose to 35.1 in September from a survey low of 33.2 in July. A reading above 50 signals an im provement and a reading below 50 a deterioration in household finances. Key findings from the report were: “Views on current household finances pick up from August’s record low, but public sector workers see new nadir – Outlook for finances brightest for 17 months – Substantial squeeze on cash available to spend – Savings fell and debt levels continued to rise”
Construction & Materials, insurance and retail shares gained most in London on Friday.
Chemicals: Victrex Plc (-1.04% to 1238p) reached a new 3-month relative low against the FTSE 100.
Financial Services: Schroders (-0.97% to 1323p) reached a new 3-month relative low against the FTSE 100.
Food & Beverage: Associated British Foods (+3.23% to 1118p) reached a new 3-month relative high against the FTSE 100.
Insurance: Admiral Group (-1.29% to 1297p) closed at a 3-month relative low against the FTSE 100.
Media: Pearson (+ 2.52% to 1138p) reached a new 3-month relative high against the FTSE 100.
Real Estate: Segro Plc (-0.59% to 234p) closed at a 3-month relative low against the FTSE 100.
Retail: Next (+1.16% to 2618p) closed at a 3-month relative high against the FTSE 100.
Telecommunications: Cable & Wireless Communications (+7.14% to 40.49p) closed at a 3-month relative high against the FTSE 100.
Latest broker recommendations
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TUI Travel 159 5.67
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FTSE 100 Lagging movers
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European Markets
Germany / Austria
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party suffered a new defeat this year in a Berlin state election.
Siemens will no longer engage in overall nuclear plant projects and the Co has scrapped the plan to set up a nuclear JV with Russia’s Rosatom according to the Co’s CEO cited by Der Spiegel weekly.
ECB: speech by José Manuel González-Páramo at MONFISPOL Research Conference organised by the House of Finance/Goethe Universität Frankfurt, 3pm CET.
Platts 2nd Annual Unconventional Gas Conference, Dusseldorf, Sep 19-20
Chemicals: Wacker Chemie (-2.72% to E89.5) reached a new 3-month relative low against the Dax.
Technology: Aixtron (-2.98% to E12.06) reached a new 3-month relative low against the Dax.
Utilities: E.ON (+3.48% to E15.62) closed at a 3-month relative high against the Dax.
France
Former IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn suggested in an interview on French TV channel TF1 investors should take their losses on Greece.
BNP Paribas plans save E200M in its operations in Belgium reported Les Echos.
EADS: Qatar is in talks to buy a 7.5% stake in the Co from Daimler reported German weekly Der Spiegel.
ArcelorMittal and Peabody Energy have extended their takeover offer for Australia’s Macarthur Coal to October 14.
Peugeot-Citroen may start producing a new compact car in 2013 at the soonest according to La Tribune citing a company official.
Sanofi said it has won a US court ruling in a patent dispute with Sun Pharmaceuticals over its colon cancer drug Eloxatin, pointing out the ruling maintains its market exlusivity for Eloxatin in the US through August 9, 2012.
Technip said it and partner Haldor Topsoe have won a contract to provide basic and front end engineering servi ces on a planned Petrobras grassroots fertilizer complex at Uberaba, State of Minas Gerais in Brazil.
Zodiac Aerospace 4Q sales expected
Manitou BF 1H results expected
Banks: Natixis (-4.41% to E2.39) and Crédit Agricole (-10.97% to E4.92) closed at a 3-month relative low against the Cac 40.
Industrial Goods & Services: Alstom (-1.8% to E27.29) closed at a 3-month relative low against the Cac 40.
Media: Publicis (+1.93% to E32.26) reached a new 3-month relative high against the Cac 40.
Personal & Household Goods: Christian Dior (+1.45% to E101.7) and Seb (+0.72% to E66.89) closed at a 3-month relative high against the Cac 40.
Retail: Casino (+1.46% to E59.15) and PPR (+1.38% to E113.55) closed at a 3-month relative high against the Cac 40.
Utilities: GDF Suez (+0.21% to E21.09) closed at a 3-month relative high against the Cac 40.
Benelux
EC: – European Parliament committee meetings – Energy Ministers’ meeting (informal) – European mobility week
Industrial Goods & Services: Imtech (+3.53% to E21.14) reached a new 3-month relative high against the AEX.
Spain – Portugal – Greece
Santander has registered with the securities regulator to issue up to E7.5B of commercial paper according to a regulatory filing.
Construction & Materials: Acciona (+1.6% to E64.74) closed at a 3-month relative high against the Ibex.
Financial Services: CaixaBank (-0.18% to E3.24) reached a new 3-month relative low against the Ibex.
Oil & Gas: Gamesa Tecnologica (-2.68% to E3.52) closed at a 3-month relative low against the Ibex.
Italy
Moody’s said it is extending its review of Italy’s credit rating by a month, citing “the increasingly challenging economic and fiscal environment and fluid political developments in the euro area”.
Banks: Banca Popolare dell’Emilia Romagna (+11% to E8.43) reached a new 3-month relative high against the FTSE MIB.
Utilities: Enel Green Power (+4.2% to E1.76) reached a new 3-month relative high against the FTSE MIB.
Switzerland
UBS has raised the amount of its loss in the latest unauthorized trading case to $2.3B. The Bank said: “The loss resulted from unauthorized speculative trading in various S&P 500, DAX, and EuroStoxx index futures over the last three months. The positions taken were within the normal business flow of a large global equity trading house as part of a properly hedged portfolio. However, the true magnitude of the risk exposure was distorted because the positions had been offset in our systems with fictitious, forward-settling, cash ETF positions, allegedly executed by the trader.”
Credit Suisse announced it and the Public Prosecutor’s Office in Düsseldorf of Germany have reached an agreement under which the Bank will make a payment of E150M (to be taken in 3Q11) on resolving the proceedings against its employees.
Roche has ceased drug delivery to some state-funded hospitals in Greece that have not paid their bills according to the Co’s CEO cited by the WSJ.
Novartis announced positive results of the first pivotal Phase III trial of its drug ACZ885 (canakinumab) in patients with a rare and serious childhood auto-inflammatory disease called systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis.
Chemicals: Givaudan (-1.8% to SF735) closed at a 3-month relative low against the SMI.
Financial Services: Partners Group (+4.07% to SF153.3) reached a new 3-month relative high against the SMI.
Food & Beverage: Lindt & Spruengli (+1.71% to SF32040) closed at a 3-month relative high against the SMI.
Health Care: Sonova Holding (+2.78% to SF79.55) closed at a 3-month relative high against the SMI.
Scandinavia
Metso said it will supply a coated board production line to China’s International Paper & Sun Cartonboard Co Ltd. While not disclosing the order’s value, the Co said: “A typical value of this kind of a production line is E90M-120M, depending on the scope of the delivery and the production output.”
Media: Sanoma Oyj (-0.16% to E9.39) reached a new 3-month relative low against the OMXH.
Oil & Gas: Renewable Energy (-2.93% to NOK7.14) closed at a 3-month relative low against the OBX.
Financial Services: Ratos-B (-0.49% to SEK90.65) closed at a 3-month relative low against the OMX Stockholm 30.
Health Care: Novozymes (+0.45% to DKK783.5) reached a new 3-month relative high against the OMX Copenhagen 20.
Today’s economic events (CE time)
US 16:00: SEP NAHB Housing Market: 15
Bloomberg
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FTSE 100 5,368 30.87 -9.01
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SMI 5,453 19.40 -15.28
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10Y Gilt 2.48 US 10Y T-Note 2.05
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Market hours
Research In Motion (RIMM -18.99% to $23.93) posted 2Q EPS of $0.63 vs $1.46 a year ago on revenue of $4.2B, down 9%. Adjusted EPS was $0.8 vs $0.88 expected. The Co said it shipped appx. 10.6M BlackBerry smartphones (less than expected) and appx. 200K BlackBerry PlayBook tablets (less than expected). The Co forecast 3Q adjusted EPS at $1.2-1.4, revenue at $5.3B-5.6B and BlackBerry smartphone shipments at 13.5M-14.5M units. RIMM said FY adjusted EPS is expected to be towards the low end of its previously guided range of $5.25-$6.
99 Cents Only Stores (NDN +9.41% to $20.46) gained as the NY Post reported the Co may receive a takeover offer.
Cooper Industries (CBE -1.16% to $47.65) has lowered its outlook for 3Q EPS to $0.94-0.98 from $0.98-1.03 and that for FY EPS to $3.75-3.82 from $3.8-3.9, citing margin pressure from raw-materials costs, restructuring-related spending and softness in sales. The Co added: “Our preliminary outloo k for 2012 is for mid-single digit core revenue growth and double-digit earnings per share growth.”
Patriot Coal (PCX -10.26% to $12.86) announced that “due primarily to geological issues impacting the Company’s two longwall mines, as well as the early closure of a thermal mine, production in the third quarter is expected to be down approximately 450,000 tons.”
Allied World Assurance (AWH +2.13% to $54.61) and Transatlantic Holdings (TRH -1.57% to $48.77) have agreed to terminate their previously announced merger agreement.
Retail: TJX Companies (TJX +3% to $57.25), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY +0.72% to $71.14), Amazon.com (AMZN +5.52% to $239.3), Whole Foods Market (WFM +0.8% to $69.05), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY +0.98% to $59.94), Autozone (AZO +1.68% to $331.25), Costco Wholesale (COST +1.48% to $84.24) reached a new 52w high.
Revlon (REV +8.04% to $13.58) was upgraded to “outperform” from &q uot;market perform” at BMO Capital Markets.
Amerigroup Corp (AGP +1.04% to $44.83) has raised its FY health-benefits ratio forecast to 83.9-84.9% from 83.1-84.1% and adjusted its FY net-income margin outlook to 2.5-3.5% from the upper end of this range previously.
American Capital (ACAS +1.98% to $8.75) said it has since early August bought back 9.1M shares at $8.21 per share on average and its board has adopted a program that may provide for additional share-repurchases or dividend payments through December 31, 2012.
Diamond Foods (DMND +11.59% to $87.3) posted for its 4Q ended July 31 non GAAP EPS up 53% YoY to $0.52. The Co raised its FY12 non GAAP EPS guidance to $3.05-$3.15 from $3.00-$3.10 previously (FY11 non GAAP EPS: $2.61).
Textron (TXT +6.76% to $18.63) and Tyco International (TYC +3.11% to $43.7) rose as Reuters reported the Cos may be takeover targets.
Boeing (BA +1.65% to $65.38): Air Fr ance-KLM Group said it intends to buy 25 Boeing 787 Dreamliner with options for 25 more.
General Dynamics (GD -1.01% to $60.6) announced the winning of a $1.8B contract from the US Navy to construct two Zumwalt-class DDG 1000 destroyers.
Utilities: Duke Energy (DUK +0.88% to $19.57), Progress Energy (PGN +0.86% to $50.63), Nisource (NI +0.5% to $22.18), Public Service Enterprise (PEG +1.23% to $34.47), Consolidated Edison (ED +0.6% to $57.42), Southern Co (SO +1.24% to $42.59), Ameren Corporation (AEE +1.4% to $30.42) reached a new 52w high.
After hours
United Technologies (UTX) may be in talks to buy Goodrich Corp (GR) reported CNBC.
Best Buy (BBY) is discussing with shareholders the future of its operations in the UK reported the Sunday Express.
Boeing Co (BA) said it will delay the first delivery of its revamped B747-8 cargo jet to Luxembourg’s Cargolux Airlines International SA due to unresolved issues with the customer.
Peabody Energy (BTU): Mongolia’s National Security Council has rejected a tentative deal struck with the Co, Shenhua Group and a Russian-Mongolian consortium to mine part of the country’s vast coal deposit Tavan Tolgoi according to a presidential spokeswoman cited by the AFP. Separately, the Co and ArcelorMittal have extended their takeover offer for Australia’s Macarthur Coal to October 14.
Westar Energy (WR) has raised its FY11 GAAP EPS guidance to $1.88-2.03 (adjusted EPS guidance $1.75-1.9) from $1.65-1.8 due to reversal of reserve s related to a legal dispute’s settlement and gain on the disposition of a non-utility investment written off in 1998.
Tyson Foods (TSN) and Visteon (VC) were recommended in Barron’s.
Expect today
Lennar Corp (LEN): 3Q EPS seen at $0.11 ($0.21 a year ago) on sales of appx. $790M ($825M), before mkt.
angiglio
Scritto il 19 Settembre 2011 at 11:04
Due sole osservazioni:
a) Se analizziamo le varie situazioni considerando il mondo in aree a seconda delle monete, chi rischia di più? L’area Euro, quella in sterline, quella in franchi svizzeri o quella in dollari?
b) Per gli USA è semplice far tornare i dati sull’ultimo grafico: basta fare come stanno facendo con Fannie Mae e Freddie Mac: garantisce il Tesoro ma il passivo dei due istituti semplicemente non lo conta a bilancio. Probabilmente Geithner è venuto ad insegnarci su come fare per garantire per la Grecia senza caricarci il debito greco.
paktrade
Scritto il 19 Settembre 2011 at 11:42
le mie due risposte sonn:
a) attualmente euro, poi dollaro, poi sterlina, poi franco, poi yen, poi la pizza di palta del congo! 
b) ma i tedeschi non hanno detto a Geithner che i suoi consigli se li può tenere? Almeno aveo letto così…
lacan2
Scritto il 19 Settembre 2011 at 18:06
scusate, ma io trovo che sarebbe più interessante mettere in relazione il patrimonio con l’esposizione o l’ammontare degli asset delle banche .. (magari se qualcuno avesse le stime)
Certo che i grafici la dicono lunga sull’esposizione di tanti ”virtuosi” paesi europei…
perplessa
Scritto il 19 Settembre 2011 at 22:37
a proposito di UBS, io sono ignorante e la stampa non lo spiega a quelli che sono ignoranti come me qual’è il vantaggio economico che Kweku Adoboli avrebbe avuto nel fare quelle operazioni ,vorrei capire come funziona
the learner
Scritto il 20 Settembre 2011 at 11:35
Probabilmente è tutta una questione di bonus. Se fosse andata bene avrebbe fatto molti soldi in bonus. Purtroppo (per tutti) non è andata così.
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E che problema c’e’? Stampiamo ancora una caionato di euroavatar e risolto il problema no?