BULLS & BEARS 2010-The best of I&M

Sabato, giretto in moto, mizzica che freddo… ed un paio di links per voi…:
Miti perche’ l’economia e’ importante:

Day in and day out I hear it from readers who insist that we are not in deflation and will not be in deflation because prices are rising and continue to rise.
Still others tell me it is illogical for a deflationist to like gold.
When I counter with a discussion about credit conditions I tend to get a blank stare or a comment like “I do not care about credit conditions. I own my home. What I care about are rising prices of food and energy.”
When I counter with falling asset prices and zero percent interest rates on savings accounts I am likely to get as statement like “Who cares, I rent?”, or perhaps “The poor have no assets or savings, all they care about is food prices.”
Really?
Such comments come from those who are not thinking clearly about what’s important. Here’s why:

Day in and day out I hear it from readers who insist that we are not in deflation and will not be in deflation because prices are rising and continue to rise.
Still others tell me it is illogical for a deflationist to like gold.
When I counter with a discussion about credit conditions I tend to get a blank stare or a comment like “I do not care about credit conditions. I own my home. What I care about are rising prices of food and energy.”
When I counter with falling asset prices and zero percent interest rates on savings accounts I am likely to get as statement like “Who cares, I rent?”, or perhaps “The poor have no assets or savings, all they care about is food prices.”
Really?
Such comments come from those who are not thinking clearly about what’s important. Here’s why:

4 modi per approfittare di wall street:

http://economicsfreenews.blogspot.com/2010/09/4-ways-to-play-markets-crazy-rally.html

The recent market rally goes against what many of us can see with our own eyes — businesses closing around us, friends losing their jobs and unable to find new ones, the economic climate generally getting worse. It just seems crazy!

But as I explained in an Uncommon Wisdom column on August 6, “Wall Street’s Gold Mine is Main Street’s Shaft“, Wall Street can make plenty of profits overseas and by off shoring jobs (and cutting costs) even as the rest of America suffers. And today, I have four picks for you to play this “Crazy Rally.”

Here are some forces I see that are lining up to push stock prices higher. See if you agree …

Un po di analisi per il weekend:

http://dshort.com/articles/Perreault/weekend-update-100917.html

Here’s the latest weekend update from Serge Perreault, a Chartered Accountant and market technician located near Montreal, Canada. Serge has been following the S&P 500 index in a series of weekly charts. Serge explains:

This week, the S&P 500 remained inside a sideways trading range dating back to May 3 and a downtrend from 2007 (log scale) on average volume (despite a quadruple witching) and on improving but near-resistance momentum. As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, the longer that neutral formation, the stronger the breakout (of the resistance) or the breakdown (of the support) will be

Intervista con David Stockman:

http://feeds.creditwritedowns.com/~r/creditwritedowns/~3/LdhJC9Jv1yk/the-big-interview-with-david-stockman.html

David Stockman was Ronald Reagan’s first Budget Director. He left the political world for things like Private Equity. Lately, he has been making headlines for his statements regarding the economy and fiscal matters. He says “In some ways Herbert Hoover got a bad rap.” in this interview with the WSJ’s Alan Murray. Stockman lays out a merciless Austerian view of the economy with a plan for economic recovery and cutting spending, raising taxes, and allowing for years of austerity

Wow wow wow, siamo sull’orlo di un super mercato orso…

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/businessinsider/~3/8uJZYQOdGns/robert-prechter-were-on-the-verge-of-the-biggest-bear-market-in-300-years-2010-9

Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International thinks we’re on the verge of the “biggest bear market in nearly 300 years”. Prechter, who believes the market moves in predictable waves, says the long-term pattern is one of dramatic upward trends with severe corrections inbetween.
He provides the following chart to show the very long-term trend in stock prices. Prechter believes the current downtrend is simply the beginning of a much more dramatic move that mirrors past market declines. Based on this data the market is well overdue for a sizable correction:
“Not even Major League Baseball can rival the stock market’s wealth of statistical data. And after studying the relevant data and analyzing the long-term pattern, Prechter offered this conclusion in the May issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist: “The current bear market will be the biggest in nearly 300 years.“
Yes, Britain’s “South Sea Bubble” in the early 1720s was the last time a bear market was comparable to what we may see unfolding now — it’s represented by that vertical drop which you see on the chart.”

Beh Prechter dice la sua, spero anch’io che non si arrivi a tanto, penso che la soluzione dei problemi attuali sia quella di una espropriazione alla Robin Hood… all’incontrario…

Comunque stavo guardando le statistiche passate e mi sono accorto che tutto sommato potrebbe avere ragione, purtroppo il grafico e’ logaritmico, hai i dati in lineare?, se prendiamo ad esempio il giappone, dai 40.000 ha toccato gli 8000 con una calo del 80%.. siamo sicuri che noi siamo indenni? Ma proprio sicuri sicuri?

cercasi BACH, dove sei?la vacanza è finita, è giunta l’ora di tornare all’ovile