SVIZZERA all’arrembaggio: possibile un nuovo FLOOR per il Franco

con un attivo sull’estero monumentale in aumento di un centinaio di miliardi di euro per il solo effetto petrolio, a me probabile che l’euro torni rapidamente sui massimi di sempre rispetto a tutto il resto tranne il dollaro SE, come la maggioranza pensa, Syriza è una tigre di carta. E in tal caso, con l’eterna pazienza della FED (o al massimo uno 0,25%… ecco fatto ora abbiamo finito) anche il cambio euro/dollaro tornerà verso almeno 1,20… fino alle elezioni spagnole e poi di nuovo giù giù e poi su su, in un moto di risonanza da manuale fino alla sua inevitabile deflagrazione finale.

…ma soprattutto c’è del marcio in Danimarca 😉

icebergfinanza,

RACE TO THE BOTTOM

L’unica gara in cui è tassativo cercare di arrivare ULTIMI !

propongo floating floor fra 1,05 e 1,10 … oppure fra 1,00 e 1,15

comunque sostengo con forza l’idea del FLOATING floor !!

john_ludd@finanza:
icebergfinanza,

RACE TO THE BOTTOM

L’unica gara in cui è tassativo cercare di arrivare ULTIMI !

TOK TOK …. opssss NOK NOK .

nok nok noking on heaven’s door

ob1KnoB@finanzaonline,

d’altra parte c’è un qualcosa di evangelico nella race to the bottom… beati gli ultimi che saranno i primi… LUI già sapeva dei tassi a zero ! (Bergoglio perdonami perchè sono un cazzone !)

Ma per favore come minimo l euro ha ancora due anni di tranquillità’ e svalutazione/mantenimento cambio attuale con il dollaro, con 1100 mld in arrivo sebbene in parte saranno compensati dall afflusso di denaro nel area euro, al limite bisogna chiedersi da dove verranno queste masse di investimenti…poi nn vedo il problema della Svizzera sta semplicemente lasciando sul campo parte degli extra guadagni fatti negli ultimi decenni grazie ad un artificiale isolamento dalla libera concorrenza dei mercati, piano piano si riassesta, marginano meno e fine del cinema, mica importano solo e poi il sistema finanziario ha goduto di extra profitti che verranno limati mica azzerati, questo a mio parere è’ un catastrofismo aprioristico ed inutile….

l_1_l

Do 2014 financial statements require additional disclosures?

…” It should be noted that if any aspect of the foreign exchange movement casts doubt over the entity’s ability to continue as a going concern, this uncertainty must be disclosed. “…

l_2_l

In business planning, which areas are most affected?

…” A critical aspect is whether you apply spot rates or forward-looking rates.

Given today’s impossibility of reliably estimating future exchange rates, the only realistic option may be to perform simulations and sensitivity analyses. “…

l_3_l

How do the SNB’s moves affect cost of capital?

The SNB also reduced by 50bps the target range for the 3-month Libor, to between positive 0.25% and negative 1.25%.

The potential impact on expected cash flows and expected returns of equity investors must be considered.

For instance, a 30-year Swiss government bond has traded below zero in recent days, around 100bps lower than previously. It could be argued that a lower yield in alternative investments may lead to higher value in equity investments with constant cash flows.

Looking back over recent years, however, bond interest rates have generally fallen while total returns for equity investors remained relatively constant.

This doesn’t, therefore, support a reduction in the cost of capital for equity investments in light of the recent drop in the benchmark interest rate.

Given the uncertainty surrounding future developments, an additional risk premium on the cost of capital might even be justified. Such an approach would require careful consideration.

More suitable might be the application of different cash flow scenarios, weighted due to probability.

These may reflect the uncertainty more transparently than a risk premium.

l_4_l

What are the tax implications of the currency appreciation?

Highly relevant is whether value adjustments are needed to assets as at the 2014 year-end.

Given that the SNB’s decision is a post-2014 balance sheet event, Swiss tax authorities might take the position that any value adjustment must be accounted for in 2015.

It’s therefore important to carefully document the reasons for any value adjustment.

Understand clearly the implications of write-downs and losses, e.g. the revaluation of investments covered by claw-back. Losses may impact distributable reserves and dividend planning.

Looking ahead, a focus should be on what internal crossborder loans and supplies of goods and services are in place.

Modelling and simulating probable transfer pricing impacts of foreign exchange movements throughout this year is key, as there might be dramatic implications for subsidiaries’ profit and loss positions.

A particular focus should be on the allocation of exchange rate risk within the group.

Overall, pay particular attention to consolidated positions.

Currency hedging is typically performed as a group function, for example.

While you may view positions from a consolidated position, taxes are assessed and levied on a country-by-country basis, which often does not allow the consolidation of profit and loss positions.

Further, the tax implications of any business reorganizations, (e.g. relocation of manufacturing) will need to be carefully analyzed (exit taxation).

l_5_l

Are there any particular implications for financial institutions?

Also for financial institutions there is no immediate impact on the measurement of assets and liabilities in the financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2014 prepared in accordance with IFRS or any other local GAAP (Swiss banking accounting rules, Swiss Code of Obligation) as long as the going concern assumption is appropriate.

However, financial institutions need as an immediate consequence assess whether and how the measurement of assets is impacted as a subsequent event.

Issues to consider are:

a. unexpected increase in credit and market risk exposures, including potential jumps to default in the loan books;

b. collateral shortfalls and failed margin calls;

c. increased credit risks in trading of financial instruments, in particular on derivatives and structured products;

d. contingent risks emerging buried in complex financial contracts;

e. suddenly emerging counterparty credit risks;

f. impacts on forward-looking disclosures in the financial statements, including risk disclosures and sensitivity analysis.

Financial institutions that identify material losses between the reporting date and the date when the financial statements are authorised for issue, must disclose the nature of the event and provide an estimate of the financial effect of material non-adjusting events after the reporting period.

For 2015, and the medium term, assessment will be required to gain clarity on business resilience, earnings potential, and capital, solvency and liquidity ratios.

l- – – – –

KPMG (Holding AG/SA, the), “From stability to volatility: assessing the impact on Swiss industry of lifting the Euro cap” – January 27, 2015

http://www.kpmg.com/CH/en/topics/Documents/pub-20150129-stability-volatility-en.pdf

also – for other information:

KPMG (Holding AG/SA, Staff, the), [Topics] “Swiss National Bank abandon of Euro cap” – January 2015

http://www.kpmg.com/CH/en/topics/Pages/snb-euro-cap.aspx

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