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Quando fallimento e ristrutturazione diventano opportunità
Scritto il 24 Gennaio 2011 alle 14:50 da
Preferisco considerare questa notizia come una simpatica nota statistica che non avrà seguito, anche se è la perfetta fotografica dell’assurdità del momento.
Negli USA lo definiscono il “New Normal”, ovvero un nuovo stile di vita a cui gli americani e nella fattispecie il nostro amico Mr Smith dovranno abituarsi.
Questo New Normal consiste in un taglio degli eccessi, nel tirare la cinghia, in poche parole nella fine del “sogno americano”.
Ma il governo USA non ci sta e fa il possibile per sostenere la ripresa ed i consumi. E allora che fa? Cerca ogni alchimia per generare artificiosamente ricchezza. Food stamps, sostegno ai mercati finanziari, sostegno al sistema bancario ecc ecc. Una situazione però che ha senso nel momento in cui, finendo i sostegni pubblici, l’economia ha la forza di camminare sulle sue gambe, permettendo al governo di ritirare progressivamente gli stimoli immessi.
Praticamente lo Stato prima dovrebbe aiutare l’economia a rimettersi nella carreggiata del ciclo economico ordinario, per poi farsi da parte. Il problema però è che questi stimoli non stanno generando quelle basi necessarie per poter garantire un futuro economico positivo. E’ solo fumo che annebbia gli occhi e fornisce momentanea ricchezza.
Basta infatti guardare il tasso di disoccupazione o i dati sull’immobiliare. Certo, in lieve miglioramento, ma siamo ancora a dei livelli insostenibili. E tutto questo però, lo si paga ad un presso spropositato.
Questo prezzo si chiama DEBITO PUBBLICO. Infatti, come dal grafico della FED di ST Louis, il debito pubblico sta raggiungendo livelli insostenibili…
…tanto che ormai siamo arrivati a livelli considerati dal governo USA insostenibili, e addirittura l’ipotesi default diventa realistica. Non sto scherzando. Infatti è lo stesso Geithner che denuncia a gran voce la cosa:
Il Congresso deve agire rapidamente e approvare l’aumento del tetto del debito americano entro il primo trimestre, altrimenti il rischio è il default, che sarebbe «più doloroso della crisi del 2008-2009». A lanciare l’allarme è il segretario al Tesoro Timothy Geithner, esortando il nuovo Congresso all’azione e aprendo subito lo scontro su uno dei temi più caldi dei prossimi mesi, ovvero i conti pubblici. La risposta non si fa attendere, con lo speaker della Camera, John Boehner, che ribadisce immediatamente la posizione repubblicana: ogni eventuale aumento del tetto legale dell’indebitamento dovrà essere accompagnato da tagli alla spesa. «L’America non può fare default sul proprio debito ma non può – aggiunge Boehner – continuare a finanziarsi così aggressivamente mettendo un’ipoteca sul futuro dei nostri figli e dei nostri nipoti». (Source)
Quindi tecnicamente il Congresso deve permettere un ulteriore aumento del tetto del debito altrimenti arriva il default tecnico. Ovvio che il tetto verrà alzato, ci mancherebbe, ma è interessante analizzare cosa dice Boehner: tagliare le spese. Certo, se si tagliano le spese a quel punto lì salta tutto il giochino di sostegno. Questa è la più lampante denuncia che la coperta è corta ed ormai l’operazione “sostegno incondizionato” ha le gambe corte. Il tetto era 14.294 miliardi di USD, e a breve questo livello sarà superato.
A questo punto tutto il piano di sostegno verrà messo in discussione: a partire dalla tanto contestata riforma sanitaria, più tutto quello che si sta facendo per far ripartire (senza riuscirci però) l’economia.
Ma non è tutto: da ogni dove si continua a denunciare il rischio default sui Munis, le obbligazioni emesse dagli enti locali che sono tecnicamente già in default se non sostenute dal Governo. E poi diversi Stati degli USA: faccio tre nomi a caso MOLTO altisonanti: Illinois, California e New York. Questi tre stati sono TUTTI in default tecnico.
Bancarotta: un’opportunità
Cosa si potrebbe fare? Tanto per cominciare per questi stati occorre trovare delle soluzioni a breve, magari delle ristrutturazioni del debito. Certo, ci saranno perdite e danni, ma ci sono vie alternative, oltre allo “stampare denaro” ed aggiungere debito al debito? E come per gli Stati, anche per i Munis e tutte quelle forme di debito che sono diventate insostenibili. Se non si prendono le cesoie e non si dà un taglio, le cose possono solo peggiorare, caricando sul futuro un fardello che diventerà sempre più insostenibile.
E in merito agli USA? Verrà sicuramente aumentato il tetto del debito. Ma ormai i tempi sono maturi per un’inversione di tendenza in merito al sostegno incondizionato.
Certo, nel tempo, i danni sul sistema economico USA potrebbero essere molto gravi. Ma ormai non c’è via alternativa.
PS: se non lo avete ancora visto, buttate un occhio a questo schema all’interno del post. Conoscerete perchè è nato ed in cosa consiste il “New Normal”….
E il mondo invece ci dice che tutto va bene? Siete liberi di pensare quello che volete. Intanto fatevi sue risate e leggetevi questi 13 metodi per sopprimere la verità…
Thirteen Techniques for Truth Suppression
by David Martin
Strong, credible allegations of high-level criminal activity can bring down a government. When the government lacks an effective, fact-based defense, other techniques must be employed. The success of these techniques depends heavily upon a cooperative, compliant press and a mere token opposition party.
1-Dummy up. If it’s not reported, if it’s not news, it didn’t happen.
2-Wax indignant. This is also known as the “how dare you?” gambit.
3-Characterize the charges as “rumors” or, better yet, “wild rumors.” If, in spite of the news blackout, the public is still able to learn about the suspicious facts, it can only be through “rumors.”
4-Knock down straw men. Deal only with the weakest aspect of the weakest charges. Even better, create your own straw men. Make up wild rumors and give them lead play when you appear to debunk all the charges, real and fanciful alike.
5-Call the skeptics names like “conspiracy theorist,” “nut,” “ranter,” “kook,” “crackpot,” and of course, “rumor monger.” You must then carefully avoid fair and open debate with any of the people you have thus maligned.
6-Impugn motives. Attempt to marginalize the critics by suggesting strongly that they are not really interested in the truth but are simply pursuing a partisan political agenda or are out to make money.
7-Invoke authority. Here the controlled press and the sham opposition can be very useful.
8-Dismiss the charges as “old news.”
9-Come half-clean. This is also known as “confession and avoidance” or “taking the limited hang-out route.” This way, you create the impression of candor and honesty while you admit only to relatively harmless, less-than-criminal “mistakes.” This stratagem often requires the embrace of a fall-back position quite different from the one originally taken.
10-Characterize the crimes as impossibly complex and the truth as ultimately unknowable.
11-Reason backward, using the deductive method with a vengeance. With thoroughly rigorous deduction, troublesome evidence is irrelevant. For example: We have a completely free press. If they know of evidence that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (BATF) had prior knowledge of the Oklahoma City bombing they would have reported it. They haven’t reported it, so there was no prior knowledge by the BATF. Another variation on this theme involves the likelihood of a conspiracy leaker and a press that would report it.
12-Require the skeptics to solve the crime completely.
13-Change the subject. This technique includes creating and/or reporting a distraction.
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7 commenti Commenta
aurifex
Scritto il 24 Gennaio 2011 at 23:11
Non so perchè ma mi sta venendo l’ansia pensando alle ricadute a livello globale… 😥
aurifex
Scritto il 24 Gennaio 2011 at 23:13
Dimenticavo…e quando succederà tutto questo l’oro,argento,platino…schizzeranno all’insù,vero??? 😯
Scritto il 24 Gennaio 2011 at 23:26
Ecco quello che ho pubblicato oggi… solo per insonni…:
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Scritto il 24 Gennaio 2011 at 23:27
Ho dimenticato di indicare il sito…:
http://mariogregorio.wordpress.com
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Resta da capire “quando” la situazione non sarà più sostenibile o se si continuerà a credere che debito e ripresa economica siano due grandezze direttamente proporzionali. 🙄