Quando fallimento e ristrutturazione diventano opportunità
Preferisco considerare questa notizia come una simpatica nota statistica che non avrà seguito, anche se è la perfetta fotografica dell’assurdità del momento.
Negli USA lo definiscono il “New Normal”, ovvero un nuovo stile di vita a cui gli americani e nella fattispecie il nostro amico Mr Smith dovranno abituarsi.
Questo New Normal consiste in un taglio degli eccessi, nel tirare la cinghia, in poche parole nella fine del “sogno americano”.
Ma il governo USA non ci sta e fa il possibile per sostenere la ripresa ed i consumi. E allora che fa? Cerca ogni alchimia per generare artificiosamente ricchezza. Food stamps, sostegno ai mercati finanziari, sostegno al sistema bancario ecc ecc. Una situazione però che ha senso nel momento in cui, finendo i sostegni pubblici, l’economia ha la forza di camminare sulle sue gambe, permettendo al governo di ritirare progressivamente gli stimoli immessi.
Praticamente lo Stato prima dovrebbe aiutare l’economia a rimettersi nella carreggiata del ciclo economico ordinario, per poi farsi da parte. Il problema però è che questi stimoli non stanno generando quelle basi necessarie per poter garantire un futuro economico positivo. E’ solo fumo che annebbia gli occhi e fornisce momentanea ricchezza.
Basta infatti guardare il tasso di disoccupazione o i dati sull’immobiliare. Certo, in lieve miglioramento, ma siamo ancora a dei livelli insostenibili. E tutto questo però, lo si paga ad un presso spropositato.
Questo prezzo si chiama DEBITO PUBBLICO. Infatti, come dal grafico della FED di ST Louis, il debito pubblico sta raggiungendo livelli insostenibili…
…tanto che ormai siamo arrivati a livelli considerati dal governo USA insostenibili, e addirittura l’ipotesi default diventa realistica. Non sto scherzando. Infatti è lo stesso Geithner che denuncia a gran voce la cosa:
Il Congresso deve agire rapidamente e approvare l’aumento del tetto del debito americano entro il primo trimestre, altrimenti il rischio è il default, che sarebbe «più doloroso della crisi del 2008-2009». A lanciare l’allarme è il segretario al Tesoro Timothy Geithner, esortando il nuovo Congresso all’azione e aprendo subito lo scontro su uno dei temi più caldi dei prossimi mesi, ovvero i conti pubblici. La risposta non si fa attendere, con lo speaker della Camera, John Boehner, che ribadisce immediatamente la posizione repubblicana: ogni eventuale aumento del tetto legale dell’indebitamento dovrà essere accompagnato da tagli alla spesa. «L’America non può fare default sul proprio debito ma non può – aggiunge Boehner – continuare a finanziarsi così aggressivamente mettendo un’ipoteca sul futuro dei nostri figli e dei nostri nipoti». (Source)
Quindi tecnicamente il Congresso deve permettere un ulteriore aumento del tetto del debito altrimenti arriva il default tecnico. Ovvio che il tetto verrà alzato, ci mancherebbe, ma è interessante analizzare cosa dice Boehner: tagliare le spese. Certo, se si tagliano le spese a quel punto lì salta tutto il giochino di sostegno. Questa è la più lampante denuncia che la coperta è corta ed ormai l’operazione “sostegno incondizionato” ha le gambe corte. Il tetto era 14.294 miliardi di USD, e a breve questo livello sarà superato.
A questo punto tutto il piano di sostegno verrà messo in discussione: a partire dalla tanto contestata riforma sanitaria, più tutto quello che si sta facendo per far ripartire (senza riuscirci però) l’economia.
Ma non è tutto: da ogni dove si continua a denunciare il rischio default sui Munis, le obbligazioni emesse dagli enti locali che sono tecnicamente già in default se non sostenute dal Governo. E poi diversi Stati degli USA: faccio tre nomi a caso MOLTO altisonanti: Illinois, California e New York. Questi tre stati sono TUTTI in default tecnico.
Bancarotta: un’opportunità
Cosa si potrebbe fare? Tanto per cominciare per questi stati occorre trovare delle soluzioni a breve, magari delle ristrutturazioni del debito. Certo, ci saranno perdite e danni, ma ci sono vie alternative, oltre allo “stampare denaro” ed aggiungere debito al debito? E come per gli Stati, anche per i Munis e tutte quelle forme di debito che sono diventate insostenibili. Se non si prendono le cesoie e non si dà un taglio, le cose possono solo peggiorare, caricando sul futuro un fardello che diventerà sempre più insostenibile.
E in merito agli USA? Verrà sicuramente aumentato il tetto del debito. Ma ormai i tempi sono maturi per un’inversione di tendenza in merito al sostegno incondizionato.
Certo, nel tempo, i danni sul sistema economico USA potrebbero essere molto gravi. Ma ormai non c’è via alternativa.
PS: se non lo avete ancora visto, buttate un occhio a questo schema all’interno del post. Conoscerete perchè è nato ed in cosa consiste il “New Normal”….
E il mondo invece ci dice che tutto va bene? Siete liberi di pensare quello che volete. Intanto fatevi sue risate e leggetevi questi 13 metodi per sopprimere la verità…
Thirteen Techniques for Truth Suppression
by David Martin
Strong, credible allegations of high-level criminal activity can bring down a government. When the government lacks an effective, fact-based defense, other techniques must be employed. The success of these techniques depends heavily upon a cooperative, compliant press and a mere token opposition party.
1-Dummy up. If it’s not reported, if it’s not news, it didn’t happen.
2-Wax indignant. This is also known as the “how dare you?” gambit.
3-Characterize the charges as “rumors” or, better yet, “wild rumors.” If, in spite of the news blackout, the public is still able to learn about the suspicious facts, it can only be through “rumors.”
4-Knock down straw men. Deal only with the weakest aspect of the weakest charges. Even better, create your own straw men. Make up wild rumors and give them lead play when you appear to debunk all the charges, real and fanciful alike.
5-Call the skeptics names like “conspiracy theorist,” “nut,” “ranter,” “kook,” “crackpot,” and of course, “rumor monger.” You must then carefully avoid fair and open debate with any of the people you have thus maligned.
6-Impugn motives. Attempt to marginalize the critics by suggesting strongly that they are not really interested in the truth but are simply pursuing a partisan political agenda or are out to make money.
7-Invoke authority. Here the controlled press and the sham opposition can be very useful.
8-Dismiss the charges as “old news.”
9-Come half-clean. This is also known as “confession and avoidance” or “taking the limited hang-out route.” This way, you create the impression of candor and honesty while you admit only to relatively harmless, less-than-criminal “mistakes.” This stratagem often requires the embrace of a fall-back position quite different from the one originally taken.
10-Characterize the crimes as impossibly complex and the truth as ultimately unknowable.
11-Reason backward, using the deductive method with a vengeance. With thoroughly rigorous deduction, troublesome evidence is irrelevant. For example: We have a completely free press. If they know of evidence that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (BATF) had prior knowledge of the Oklahoma City bombing they would have reported it. They haven’t reported it, so there was no prior knowledge by the BATF. Another variation on this theme involves the likelihood of a conspiracy leaker and a press that would report it.
12-Require the skeptics to solve the crime completely.
13-Change the subject. This technique includes creating and/or reporting a distraction.
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Non so perchè ma mi sta venendo l’ansia pensando alle ricadute a livello globale… 😥
Dimenticavo…e quando succederà tutto questo l’oro,argento,platino…schizzeranno all’insù,vero??? 😯
Ecco quello che ho pubblicato oggi… solo per insonni…:
Russia To Increase Gold Holdings By 13% In 2011, Will Buy 100 Tonnes Of Gold Each Year
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
The WSJ reports that The Central Bank of Russia, which seems to have missed Doug Kass’ Friday Fast Money appearance, plans to buy 100 metric tons of gold from domestic banks a year in order to replenish the country’s gold … Continue reading →
Silver in Backwardation: Expect a Move Up
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
Although the silver price has declined by 11% over the past three weeks, tightness in the physical market continues as the metal is again in backwardation, i.e. the spot price is higher than the futures price. James Turk of GoldMoney … Continue reading →
What Did Bob Roberts Know?
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
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Reader Pics of EDC Survival Kits
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
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At last we have it – the George and Ed show?
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The Coming World Crisis- Planned or Unplanned – 2011
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Magnetic Reversals And Ice Ages (poorrichard”s blog
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
I noticed this on poorrichard’s blog and as a subject that is also of interest to me I am reposting it. poorrichards-blogMagnetic Reversals & Ice AgesBy Alan Caruba for canadafreepress at redicecreations.comSome say the world will end in fire;Some say in … Continue reading →
What Every American Needs To Understand About The Economy
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
01/24/11 Singapore, Singapore – As the United States debates its economic future in light of large government budget deficits, it is important that the public has a clear understanding of how the economy works. A good starting point for understanding … Continue reading →
Pink numbers and fluffy words.
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
If a man cuts wood into planks at a rate of x planks per hour, seven hours a day, and if it takes 12x planks to make a shed, how long does it take the man to prepare enough planks … Continue reading →
Commentary- Hansen Draft Paper: Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
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You do not have a credit Card : you are a terrorist according to DHS
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
Here come the full body scanners in every public building. Great just what we needed, a bunch of wanna be DHS agents going around checking people out after watching this piece of paranoid propaganda crap….let me know if you see … Continue reading →
Australia says NO
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
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Millions Of Chinese Stunned After Government Makes Obama UFO Statment
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
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A Basic Call to Consciousness The Hau de no sau nee Address to the Western World
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
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Is this the age of the SPADs?
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
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Swiss Tech Screwz All 4-in-1 Multi Tool with Key Ring
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
The tool is perfect for adjustments to computers, outdoor gear, eyeglasses and other equipment, and makes minor repairs, assemblies, installations, and hundreds of jobs an easy undertaking. The tool tightly secured to the key clip provided, eliminating the need for … Continue reading →
Information on the 2012 Prophecy
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
December 21, 2012 marks the end of the Mayan Long Count Calender’s Great Cycle. When the new cycle begins, it is unknown what will or will not happen. Could we experience the destruction of the planet Earth? No one really … Continue reading →
In Praise of Anarchy
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
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We Didn’t Start The Fire
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
I’ve been trying to make sense of the rigmarole now foisted upon our lean, uncuttable, frontline services in light of this anecdotal piece from Matthew Norman in the Telegraph (do read the whole thing). As far as I can understand … Continue reading →
Ireland Government Crumbles As Green Party Pulls Out Of Ruling Coalition
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
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Debt Defaults, Austerity, and Death of the “Social Europe” Model
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
By Jeffrey Somers and Michael HudsonA spectre is haunting Europe: the illusion that Latvia’s financial and fiscal austerity is a model for other countries to emulate. Bankers and the financial press are asking governments from Greece to Ireland and now … Continue reading →
Will global warming survive a strong La Nina?
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
Guest post by Frank LansnerA global temperature stagnation despite warm El Nino year 2010?After the warm El Nino period 2009-2010, global temperature trends starting 1998 has generally turned positive: The period starts out with a strong El Nino in 1998, … Continue reading →
Cherokee Prophecy – Chief Tribe of the End Days
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
There is a prophecy that says the Cherokee will be the chief tribe of the Native Americans in the End Days. How may this come about? The Cherokee are one of many Native American tribes in North America, so what … Continue reading →
Bible Prophecy Yet to Be Revealed
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
With the vivid realization that we are living in the age just prior to the second coming of Christ in the cloud, I pray the Lord will impress you with the shortness of time available before the fate of every … Continue reading →
Texas… Exposed!… Shocking Video Taken at ‘Catfish Corner’ Shows Catfish Being Skinned Alive!…
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
Full color undercover video shot at a Texas catfish processing facility in eastern Dallas County is sparking outrage and turning stomachs. Shot by Mercy For Animals (MFA), employees at Catfish Corner, near Mesquite, skin and dismember catfish that clearly fight … Continue reading →
Open Thread Sunday
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
In honor of Jeff Id closing The Air Vent, I’m going to take the day off and spend more time with my kids.Be civil and keep the topics germane. Don’t make me come back here. – Anthony View the original … Continue reading →
Pakistan Soon to Have Major Earthquake – A Prophecy I Received From the Lord Today
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
I was having two slices of pizza today from a Turkish fast food place I like to go where I have friendly Muslim friends. As I was eating the second slice of Pizza I was attracted to a whole lot … Continue reading →
Spain’s Cajas to Reveal Real Estate Losses
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
The Bank of Spain is to force the cajas, Spanish savings banks to reveal the extent of their property losses. The thinking behind this move is the same as the thinking that prompted the stress tests in both the US … Continue reading →
Shagger Strathclyde Seven-Year Affair With Old Flame
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
Lord Strathclyde is a legend at Tory party conferences, the Leader of the House of Lords throws a decent party and is famous for trying it on with the ladies. With more success than you might imagine… Birgit Cunningham is … Continue reading →
Preparedness is Peace of Mind
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
PermalinkI have a feeling that many folks outside the survival-preparedness minded way-of-thinking may themselves think that ‘preppers’ are a bunch of paranoid wackos, spouting doom and gloom all the time.Sure, there are extremes in any walk of life, but chances … Continue reading →
Chainmate 24-Inch Survival Pocket Chain Saw With Pouch
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
With its carbon steel teeth and extreme portability, this survival saw is an essential tool for snowmobilers, campers, hikers, mountain bikers and all other outdoorsmen. U.S.A. Chain Length (in.): 24, Blade Material: Carbon steel Price: $19.99 Click here to buy … Continue reading →
Free Energy
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
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The dome of the sky will turn red
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
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World Industrial Output Above Pre-Recession Level
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
The chart above is based on data from the World Trade Monitor (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) and shows monthly World Industrial Production and World Trade from January 1991 to November 2011. As the chart shows, global output … Continue reading →
Weekly Outlook for January 24-28, 2011: Market Internals Point to Weakness
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
The week ahead is setting up to be an eventful one, as we will get data on housing and durable goods, and there will no doubt be more discussion coming out of the eurozone, all in the context of financial … Continue reading →
Gerald Celente : Gold is the safest of safe havens ,Silver is good too
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
Gerald Celente on ABC Australia Annie Gaffney. 10th Jan 2011Trends for 2011 with Gerald Celente on the Australian radio ABC with Annie Gaffney . What are the trends that are likely to shape 2011 – particularly in the spheres of … Continue reading →
The seven continents will be at war
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
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Hopes for the New Year
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
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This year 2011 great changes in USA
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
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James Redfield and The Celestine Prophecy
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
In 1989 James Redfield resigned from his job as a counselor and therapist to disturbed adolescents in Alabama and devoted his life full time to writing. This was a very brave move but “The Celestine Prophecy” went onto to sell … Continue reading →
Gold Bullion: Bottleneck or Supply Deficit?
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
By Jeff Clark, BIG GOLDThere have been numerous reports of bullion shortages in many parts around the world, along with rising premiums. And the two explanations – we’re running out of gold! and, it’s just a manufacturing bottleneck – are … Continue reading →
Does Gold Have a Fair Value?
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
The debate between fiat currency and variations of the gold standard is intensely political as much as it is economic. My aim is not to discuss the virtues of either system or comment on policy; rather I would like to … Continue reading →
Time to say farewell to many
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
Time to say farewell to many Message to Eileen RendersDecember 30th, 2010 After praying to Jesus on my knees, He uttered these words into my heartfor all of us to hear:“Eileen My child, it is TIME TO SAY FAREWELL TO … Continue reading →
Protectress of the Faith
Posted on 24/01/2011 by Mario
HOL11012101Protectress of the FaithHoly Love MessagesJanuary 21, 201125th Anniversary of Mary, Protectress of the FaithOur Lady comes as ‘Protectress of the Faith’.She says: “Praise be to Jesus.”“Under this title I come to draw together My children in the TRADITION OF … Continue reading →
Is YOUR state about to fail?
Posted on 23/01/2011 by Mario
And as the New York Times has just documented, the timing couldn’t be more critical …“So the forecast grows darker,” says the Times … “What’s clear is that almost everywhere the fiscal crisis of states has grown more acute. “Rainy … Continue reading →
The Prophet Daniel And End-Time Prophecy
Posted on 23/01/2011 by Mario
The key to understanding the “abomination of desolation” and much of the end times is to be found in Daniel’s prophecy. This will mean a journey back 600 years before Christ to visit a very old and respected man living … Continue reading →
Ho dimenticato di indicare il sito…:
http://mariogregorio.wordpress.com
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Resta da capire “quando” la situazione non sarà più sostenibile o se si continuerà a credere che debito e ripresa economica siano due grandezze direttamente proporzionali. 🙄