Financial LINKS – Forex War

Un apio di links… oggi sono stanco…:

Non lasciare che settembre ti freghi:
http://economicsfreenews.blogspot.com/2010/10/dont-let-septembers-rally-trick-you.html
You’ve probably heard the optimistic hype surrounding September’s stock market performance. The S&P 500 gained an impressive 8.8 percent during a month that has a bad reputation among stock market investors.

Measuring stock market performance on a calendar basis is indeed common. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it makes a lot of sense. In fact, it’s totally arbitrary to look only at monthly performance figures …

A balanced approach would look at rolling 4-week averages. Or in the case of this September, rolling 22-trading day intervals since there were actually 22 trading days. And if you chose this approach, the above cited 8.8 percent increase becomes a big non-event.

Investors might also find they could have been better off had they listened to an old Wall Street saying: “Sell in May and go away.” And statistics strongly support this simple rule …

Discussione su come si passi da una cosa all’altra in questa crisi:
http://economicsfreenews.blogspot.com/2010/10/first-rate-reductions-then-money.html
The global economy, now supported in the main only by the overextended U.S. consumer, finds itself at stall speed, susceptible to any number of potential exogenous shocks. Ultimately, the economic malaise created by this confluence of events will take years to unwind. A positive outcome to this process is dependent wholly on liquidation of excess credit and consumption.

This process will be extremely painful in the short term, but will lead to a healthy economy long-term. Unfortunately, experience shows that these painful steps will only be taken as a last resort. Moreover, geopolitical events become volatile in a world of economic insecurity, leading to political upheaval and protectionism. Protectionism is a natural outgrowth of nationalist economic policy as it transfers wealth from foreign producers to domestic producers by cutting off access to lower cost excess capacity in the goods in service sectors. However, this also serves to transfer wealth from domestic consumers to domestic producers by increasing the price of goods in the protected sectors, ultimately reducing consumption demand.

12 presagi funesti per l’economia:
http://economicsfreenews.blogspot.com/2010/10/12-ominous-signs-for-world-financial.html
Can anyone explain the very strange behavior that we are seeing in world financial markets right now? Corporate insiders are bailing out of the U.S. stock market at a very alarming rate. Investors are moving mountains of money into gold and other commodities. In fact, there is such a rush towards gold that shortages are starting to be reported in some areas. Meanwhile, some very, very unusual option activity has started to show up. In particular, someone is making some incredibly large bets that the S&P 500 is going to absolutely tank during the month of October. Central banks around the world have caught a case of “loose money fever” and are apparently hoping that a new flood of paper money will shock the global economy back to life. Meanwhile, the furor over the foreclosure procedure abuses of the major U.S mortgage companies threatens to bring even more turmoil to the U.S. housing industry

Mercati emergenti:
http://financenewsoftheworldbis.blogspot.com/2010/10/when-emerging-markets-emerge.html
Sometimes the best way for an investor to see ahead is to take a look and see what happened in the past. This is why Charlie Munger, the wise old vice chairman at Berkshire Hathaway, likes to say, “There are answers worth billions of dollars in a $30 history book.”

The history books have a riveting story to tell about emerging markets. This story has clues that tell us what might happen in the big emerging markets of today – such as China, India and Brazil. And these clues, like a trail of breadcrumbs, lead to one great investment theme. It’s so sweeping and powerful that it has even huge multinationals giddy at the opportunity.

First, a little of that history, beginning with postwar Japan and the “three electric treasures”…

Possibilita’ reale di rientrare in recessione al 20% per il secondo mese consecutivo: (perche’ ne siamo usciti?)

http://financenewsoftheworld.blogspot.com/2010/10/real-time-probabilities-of-recession.html
Seeking to eliminate the enormous lag of NBER in declaring the beginning and end of recessions, economist Marcelle Chauvet computes real-time recession probabilities in a manner consistent with the long after the fact findings of the NBER.
The probability is down from last month, nonetheless Real Time Probabilities of Recession are above 20% for the second consecutive month.
Real-time means a one quarter delay, but that is still faster than the NBER is likely to make proclamations.

…dimenticavo…
OCCHIO che oggi si parte con le trimestrali!

Come sempre la prima è lei… AA alias Alcoa… 😉

Chiusura odierna TME = 0,00%