Moody’s: nuovo downgrade. Colpite 28 banche spagnole
Crisi Spagna: ancora settore finanziario nel mirino delle agenzie di rating
Era quasi inevitabile. Dopo aver colpito duramente la Spagna con un downgrade nelle scorse giornate, Moody’s torna a colpire ed abbassa il rating a ben 28 banche spagnole.
Una mossa che ahimè era quasi prevista proprio a seguito dell’abbassamento sul giudizio di affidabilità del debito governativo di Madrid.
La notizia era attesa, tanto che oggi pomeriggio ci era stato comunicato che le banche protagoniste del downgrading erano già state avvertite. Intanto però tutto questo avrà certamente degli impatti e comporterà delle conseguenze. Ai mercati, alla stabilità, alla volatilità. E alla Spagna che si trova in condizioni macroeconomiche veramente difficili (e il downgrade è figlio anche di questo scenario)
Questo il comunicato ufficiale sul sito di Moody’s:
Moody’s downgrades Spain’s government bond rating to Baa3 from A3, on review for further downgrade
NOTE: On June 22, 2012 the press release was revised as follows: Correct the sixth paragraph to add the following: “Short-term ratings were also placed on review for possible further downgrade.” Revised release follows.
London, 13 June 2012 — Moody’s Investors Service has today downgraded Spain’s government bond rating to Baa3 from A3, and has also placed it on review for possible further downgrade. Moody’s expects to conclude the review within a maximum timeframe of three months.
The decision to downgrade the Kingdom of Spain’s rating reflects the following key factors:
1. The Spanish government intends to borrow up to EUR100 billion from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) or from its successor, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), to recapitalise its banking system. This will further increase the country’s debt burden, which has risen dramatically since the onset of the financial crisis.
2. The Spanish government has very limited financial market access, as evidenced both by its reliance on the EFSF or ESM for the recapitalisation funds and its growing dependence on its domestic banks as the primary purchasers of its new bond issues, who in turn obtain funding from the ECB.
3. The Spanish economy’s continued weakness makes the government’s weakening financial strength and its increased vulnerability to a sudden stop in funding a much more serious concern than would be the case if there was a reasonable expectation of vigorous economic growth within the next few years.
Today’s downgrades of 28 debt and deposit ratings reflect both (i) Moody’s assessment that the ability of the Spanish government to provide future support to Spanish banks has declined; and (ii) the banks’ reduced standalone credit profiles. The downgrades of 19 banks’ short-term ratings followed the downgrades of their long-term ratings, consistent with Moody’s standard mapping of short-term to long-term ratings.
Moody’s has also lowered its systemic support assessment for NCG Banco, Catalunya Banco and Banco de Valencia to levels that are consistent with their nationwide market shares, in line with the criteria applied to the rest of the banking system as per Moody’s methodology (see “Incorporation of Joint-Default Analysis into Moody’s Bank Ratings: Global Methodology” published on 30 March, 2012).
Moody’s had increased the uplift factored into the senior debt ratings of these three banks as a result of their ownership by FROB (Fondo de Restructuracion Ordenada Bancaria). These banks were intended to benefit from an Asset Protection Scheme by the Deposit Guarantee Fund — which is funded by annual contributions from member banks. However, Moody’s assigns a very low probability to the completion of a swift auction process, given the system-wide pressures and the uncertainties regarding the size, terms and schedule of the recapitalisation of the system by the EFSF or ESM.
Furthermore, Moody’s has downgraded the issuer ratings of La Caixa and Banco Financiero y de Ahorro (BFA), triggered by the downgrade of the debt ratings of their operating companies, CaixaBank and Bankia, respectively. The issuer ratings of La Caixa and BFA are positioned two and three notches, respectively, below the long-term ratings of their operating companies. The issuer rating of La Caixa is on review for downgrade, whilst BFA’s is on review direction uncertain. Both outlooks reflect the outlooks on their operating companies’ ratings.
Moody’s has maintained the debt and deposit ratings of three entities at their current levels (Banco Pastor, Banco CAM and Lico Leasing). The debt ratings of Banco Pastor and Banco CAM incorporate their full ownership by Banco Popular and Banco Sabadell, respectively, and our expectation that their debt will be legally assumed by their owners during the current year as they will cease to exist as independent legal entities. To reflect this situation, Moody’s has assigned a very high probability of parental support to these banks’ debt ratings.
Non temete, Moody’s non si ferma qui ma minaccia ancora imercati. lo stillicidio continuerà e presto potrebbe arrivare un nuovo downgrade ancora per 16 banche sempre spagnole.
Ricordate i vecchi Saloon? Sarebbe il caso di riprendere questo vecchio cartello…