Short Interest e Insider Trading

Scritto il alle 11:39 da Danilo DT

 Oramai siamo ad un passo dal target. Sembrava impossibile, ed invece no. Perentoriamente, pian pianino, il mercato azionario si è mosso al rialzo e, bruciando le tappe, incurante dell’ipercomprato e delle vicissitudini macro sul debito, ormai si trova ad un tiro di schioppo da quel livello posto a 61.8% di Fibonacci.
I volumi si mantengono comunque sempre elevati anche se in leggera diminuzione. Occorre però notare che i cosiddetto Short Interest sono ormai ad un passo dal top. Ed inoltre, non possiamo certo sottovalutare il fatto che le cosiddette “mani forti” e ben informate si stanno muovendo. Ma non in acquisto. Bensì in vendita. Il sito MarketWatch http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-insiders-pick-up-their-selling-2010-04-14 ce ne dà testimonianza.

Last week, according to the latest issue of Vickers’ service, insiders on balance sold 4.96 shares of their companies’ stock for every one that they bought.
That’s more than double the ratio for the week in early February when the stock market hit its low for the correction, when it stood at 1.96 to 1. In fact, the recent ratio is quite close to the 5.15-to-1 ratio that prevailed in the week in which the stock market hit its January high — just before the correction commenced.
To be sure, there is a lot of volatility to the weekly ratios, especially when the overall volume of insider transactions is relatively light — as indeed they have been lately. This is one of the reasons that Vickers also calculates an eight-week average of their sell-to-buy ratio. It currently stands at 4.18-to-1.
Quindi risulta chiaro che l’insider trading si sta spostando verso una chiara posizione bearish. E sempre in ambito di analisi bearish oggi vi presento un interessante report.

Vi propongo un documento che ritengo valido per capire dove va e come si comporta lo short interest. Vi presento, alla data del 31 marzo, le 100 posizioni più importanti shortate sul NYSE, i 50 maggiori cambiamenti di short interest sempre sul NYSE (le società con volumi maggiori) sia la rialzo che al ribasso. Accompagnate dal grafico che ne testimonia l’andamento medio a livello volumetrico.
Credo che sia un documento esclusivo che vi farà capire come si sta evolvendo il mercato azionario.

TOP of the short interest

 

Ticker                                                           Avg. Daily

Symbol   Company                    March 31       March 15       Volume      

=============================================================================

C        CITIGROUP INC             523,504,424    552,413,116    596,836,756

SPY      SPDR S&P 500 ETF          232,808,624    251,896,674    183,621,927

IWM      ISHARES-RUS 2000          195,796,980    224,275,657     57,952,974

F        FORD MOTOR CO             182,004,206    191,090,805    167,680,593

S        SPRINT NEXTEL CO          133,208,815    138,115,420     62,447,655

FNM      FANNIE MAE                122,836,168    114,631,965     22,514,095

Q        QWEST COMMUNICAT          121,988,373     95,616,645     33,321,021

XLF      SPDR-FINL SELECT          121,753,861    135,556,937     83,368,406

BAC      BANK OF AMERICA            92,990,045    105,490,138    167,275,258

XOM      EXXON MOBIL CORP           86,216,436     82,565,605     27,430,760

AA       ALCOA INC                  86,116,626     80,189,371     37,435,659

EEM      ISHARES-EMG MKT            80,302,047     69,718,561     62,237,687

NOK      NOKIA CORP-ADR             76,968,561     79,521,437     18,628,911

RF       REGIONS FINANCIA           75,117,710     73,802,029     23,061,211

MGM      MGM MIRAGE                 73,600,426     78,363,366     26,136,070

IYR      ISHARES-DJ REAL            73,167,494     87,552,945     14,023,167

XRT      SPDR S&P RETAIL            71,677,308     80,799,666     12,343,735

GE       GENERAL ELECTRIC           70,081,135     64,508,199    105,626,893

FRE      FREDDIE MAC                67,341,025     73,995,584     10,496,381

MO       ALTRIA GROUP INC           64,905,754     68,821,302     13,914,494

ABK      AMBAC FINL GROUP           60,395,046     54,472,362     20,978,908

WFC      WELLS FARGO & CO           60,116,195     55,339,341     35,780,449

DIS      WALT DISNEY CO             58,297,071     50,583,705     14,018,830

SNV      SYNOVUS FINL               56,084,448     55,061,726     19,199,113

EK       EASTMAN KODAK              52,252,275     51,596,724      6,597,090

FXI      ISHARES FT/XI CH           52,172,749     46,297,916     26,477,301

MOT      MOTOROLA INC               51,639,572     50,782,198     20,656,960

KEY      KEYCORP                    50,083,122     44,017,317     15,967,643

HST      HOST HOTELS & RE           49,962,302     47,929,201     10,578,719

VZ       VERIZON COMMUNIC           48,352,298     38,711,620     17,994,665

SLB      SCHLUMBERGER LTD           48,051,597     44,277,354     12,443,704

T        AT&T INC                   47,295,552     45,409,105     25,263,869

LVS      LAS VEGAS SANDS            45,917,095     48,897,246     42,031,554

SCHW     SCHWAB (CHARLES)           45,383,310     49,780,977     11,128,625

BMY      BRISTOL-MYER SQB           45,293,233     39,013,228     13,102,086

VALE     VALE SA-SP ADR             45,264,749     46,490,325     27,418,080

SKS      SAKS INC                   45,189,320     45,695,914      4,877,129

PFE      PFIZER INC                 44,540,816     42,684,923     62,080,057

FTR      FRONTIER COMMUNI           42,447,933     41,666,525      4,543,150

KFT      KRAFT FOODS INC            42,335,982     41,923,062     14,081,908

EFA      ISHARES-MSCI EAF           41,231,558     40,653,244     17,771,204

USB      US BANCORP                 40,065,879     45,475,557      9,805,574

HD       HOME DEPOT INC             39,783,711     39,321,802     13,078,438

SD       SANDRIDGE ENERGY           39,647,104     34,318,641      6,684,858

EMC      EMC CORP/MASS              39,378,045     40,836,332     22,120,519

HL       HECLA MINING CO            38,782,810     34,576,415     10,383,397

SLE      SARA LEE CORP              38,715,819     45,295,411      8,092,269

KRE      SPDR KBW REGIONA           38,008,007     42,303,461      2,613,801

AMD      ADV MICRO DEVICE           37,624,587     44,545,118     15,367,207

BHI      BAKER HUGHES INC           37,231,406     34,501,531      6,514,257

CHK      CHESAPEAKE ENERG           35,695,976     36,922,247     24,521,229

CX       CEMEX SAB-SP ADR           34,655,162     23,542,802     12,284,063

AIG      AMERICAN INTERNA           34,617,181     34,958,226     15,891,604

STI      SUNTRUST BANKS             34,458,160     38,844,800      6,470,879

PLD      PROLOGIS                   33,397,471     34,909,172      7,212,443

CMS      CMS ENERGY CORP            33,332,446     33,849,744      2,387,791

WM       WASTE MANAGEMENT           33,310,100     31,741,048      2,385,688

LCC      US AIRWAYS GROUP           33,186,994     35,843,946      5,344,391

PHM      PULTE GROUP INC            33,111,215     35,074,712      6,286,878

AMR      AMR CORP                   32,495,586     31,390,767     12,114,516

MAR      MARRIOTT INTL-A            32,398,603     31,279,406      5,413,165

XLE      SPDR-ENERGY SEL            32,083,466     32,700,675     19,361,680

LSI      LSI CORP                   32,060,072     29,684,351     15,717,645

GCI      GANNETT CO                 31,161,491     29,761,709      4,048,158

HOG      HARLEY-DAVIDSON            30,907,807     34,834,898      4,524,571

ODP      OFFICE DEPOT INC           30,703,570     30,956,823      4,920,664

PG       PROCTER & GAMBLE           30,641,736     31,593,237      9,992,261

MCO      MOODY’S CORP               30,581,757     30,865,666      2,276,639

NYB      NY COMM BANCORP            30,550,158     33,454,314      4,404,230

JPM      JPMORGAN CHASE             30,401,335     26,449,001     33,524,398

RCI      ROGERS COMMUNI-B           30,172,360     28,054,632        441,527

MTG      MGIC INVT CORP             29,979,718     29,461,597      6,945,551

HTZ      HERTZ GLOBAL HOL           29,562,187     28,169,812      4,110,427

SMH      SEMICONDUCTOR HL           29,505,123     34,938,212     12,936,531

LLY      ELI LILLY & CO             28,802,348     27,059,142      7,036,106

NWL      NEWELL RUBBERMAI           28,801,015     28,159,295      3,635,370

NLY      ANNALY CAPITAL M           28,620,624     29,879,167     12,599,698

JNPR     JUNIPER NETWORKS           28,570,000     30,388,255      4,962,362

BRK/B    BERKSHIRE HATH-B           27,885,605     34,945,317      4,920,187

TXT      TEXTRON INC                27,690,247     26,168,984      3,690,837

MF       MF GLOBAL HOLDIN           27,420,018     25,779,339      5,907,929

BBT      BB&T CORP                  27,174,397     22,951,301      6,027,745

M        MACY’S INC                 27,060,485     28,938,180      8,529,166

BSX      BOSTON SCIENTIFC           26,558,805     23,130,252     53,517,826

FCX      FREEPORT-MCMORAN           26,433,998     27,178,591     12,900,746

XLB      SPDR-MATERIALS             26,392,568     28,365,286     11,579,672

X        US STEEL CORP              26,192,838     26,521,384     15,943,383

PM       PHILIP MORRIS              26,120,163     25,401,593      7,161,544

TER      TERADYNE INC               25,490,932     26,058,515      4,855,527

MWW      MONSTER WORLDWID           25,390,641     24,922,011      1,976,557

IPG      INTERPUBLIC GRP            25,256,754     23,837,316      5,232,075

DHI      DR HORTON INC              25,243,522     26,519,830      4,780,077

CAT      CATERPILLAR INC            25,000,740     28,110,233      8,683,311

GME      GAMESTOP CORP-A            24,764,692     27,539,870      6,385,414

TXN      TEXAS INSTRUMENT           24,692,468     24,784,842     12,958,819

BBD      BRADESCO-ADR               24,652,947     22,889,901      9,880,140

ALU      ALCATEL-LUCE-ADR           24,579,870     20,880,318     13,356,048

MBI      MBIA INC                   24,370,305     27,114,545      7,489,468

LIZ      LIZ CLAIBORNE              23,958,367     25,362,695      2,123,958

RCL      ROYAL CARIBBEAN            23,907,206     27,636,136      3,035,142

TOP on the change SHORT INTEREST

 

TOP 50 INCREASES

 

Ticker                                                                  

Symbol   Company                    March 31       March 15        Change   

=============================================================================

Q        QWEST COMMUNICAT         121,988,373     95,616,645     26,371,728

CX       CEMEX SAB-SP ADR          34,655,162     23,542,802     11,112,360

EEM      ISHARES-EMG MKT           80,302,047     69,718,561     10,583,486

VZ       VERIZON COMMUNIC          48,352,298     38,711,620      9,640,678

FNM      FANNIE MAE               122,836,168    114,631,965      8,204,203

DIS      WALT DISNEY CO            58,297,071     50,583,705      7,713,366

BMY      BRISTOL-MYER SQB          45,293,233     39,013,228      6,280,005

XOP      SPDR OIL&GAS EXP          20,895,428     14,789,518      6,105,910

KEY      KEYCORP                   50,083,122     44,017,317      6,065,805

VWO      VANGUARD EM MK E          16,277,763     10,251,882      6,025,881

AA       ALCOA INC                 86,116,626     80,189,371      5,927,255

ABK      AMBAC FINL GROUP          60,395,046     54,472,362      5,922,684

VXX      IPATH-S&P S/T FU          13,242,918      7,355,493      5,887,425

FXI      ISHARES FT/XI CH          52,172,749     46,297,916      5,874,833

GE       GENERAL ELECTRIC          70,081,135     64,508,199      5,572,936

SD       SANDRIDGE ENERGY          39,647,104     34,318,641      5,328,463

WFR      MEMC ELEC MATER           22,802,376     17,831,916      4,970,460

IYT      ISHARES-DJ US TR           8,056,657      3,089,793      4,966,864

WFC      WELLS FARGO & CO          60,116,195     55,339,341      4,776,854

AET      AETNA INC                 10,671,252      6,259,272      4,411,980

BBT      BB&T CORP                 27,174,397     22,951,301      4,223,096

HL       HECLA MINING CO           38,782,810     34,576,415      4,206,395

XLV      SPDR-HEALTH CARE          17,825,416     13,749,415      4,076,001

JPM      JPMORGAN CHASE            30,401,335     26,449,001      3,952,334

EWJ      ISHARES-JAPAN             17,706,623     13,847,772      3,858,851

UNG      US NAT GAS FD LP          16,328,519     12,551,103      3,777,416

SLB      SCHLUMBERGER LTD          48,051,597     44,277,354      3,774,243

ALU      ALCATEL-LUCE-ADR          24,579,870     20,880,318      3,699,552

TSM      TAIWAN SEMIC-ADR          19,556,411     15,870,049      3,686,362

XOM      EXXON MOBIL CORP          86,216,436     82,565,605      3,650,831

WMB      WILLIAMS COS INC          11,726,268      8,267,126      3,459,142

BSX      BOSTON SCIENTIFC          26,558,805     23,130,252      3,428,553

LTD      LTD BRANDS INC            19,456,053     16,033,272      3,422,781

FBR      FIBRIA CELUL-ADR          12,300,706      8,949,919      3,350,787

PFG      PRINCIPAL FINL            12,667,463      9,349,176      3,318,287

RWT      REDWOOD TRUST              7,026,490      3,732,747      3,293,743

HK       PETROHAWK ENERGY          18,253,454     14,975,943      3,277,511

DAL      DELTA AIR LI              20,558,052     17,296,427      3,261,625

NI       NISOURCE INC              10,606,034      7,577,106      3,028,928

BK       BANK NY MELLON            17,902,581     14,909,979      2,992,602

PCG      PG&E CORP                  8,758,846      5,794,614      2,964,232

UPS      UNITED PARCEL-B           14,938,503     12,049,103      2,889,400

FE       FIRSTENERGY CORP           8,631,201      5,874,947      2,756,254

BHI      BAKER HUGHES INC          37,231,406     34,501,531      2,729,875

VIA/B    VIACOM INC-B              10,886,700      8,163,409      2,723,291

EEE      EVERGREEN ENERGY          15,264,584     12,614,008      2,650,576

CVS      CVS CAREMARK COR          16,750,217     14,203,929      2,546,288

TJX      TJX COS INC               13,542,682     11,078,034      2,464,648

TOL      TOLL BROTHERS             15,054,009     12,639,201      2,414,808

EXC      EXELON CORP               12,372,453      9,960,035      2,412,418

TOP 50 DECREASES

 

Ticker                                                                  

Symbol   Company                    March 31       March 15        Change   

=============================================================================

C        CITIGROUP INC            523,504,424    552,413,116    -28,908,692

IWM      ISHARES-RUS 2000         195,796,980    224,275,657    -28,478,677

SPY      SPDR S&P 500 ETF         232,808,624    251,896,674    -19,088,050

DNR      DENBURY RESOURCE          18,384,666     36,397,645    -18,012,979

IYR      ISHARES-DJ REAL           73,167,494     87,552,945    -14,385,451

XLF      SPDR-FINL SELECT         121,753,861    135,556,937    -13,803,076

BAC      BANK OF AMERICA           92,990,045    105,490,138    -12,500,093

SWK      STANLEY BLACK &            4,609,175     16,801,306    -12,192,131

XRT      SPDR S&P RETAIL           71,677,308     80,799,666     -9,122,358

F        FORD MOTOR CO            182,004,206    191,090,805     -9,086,599

XRX      XEROX CORP                10,752,585     18,449,452     -7,696,867

RAD      RITE AID CORP             20,625,913     28,280,705     -7,654,792

BRK/B    BERKSHIRE HATH-B          27,885,605     34,945,317     -7,059,712

AMD      ADV MICRO DEVICE          37,624,587     44,545,118     -6,920,531

FRE      FREDDIE MAC               67,341,025     73,995,584     -6,654,559

SLE      SARA LEE CORP             38,715,819     45,295,411     -6,579,592

RY       ROYAL BK CANADA           16,200,273     22,497,359     -6,297,086

CVE      CENOVUS ENERGY             5,721,273     11,376,903     -5,655,630

EWH      ISHARES-HONGKONG           6,134,680     11,759,094     -5,624,414

SMH      SEMICONDUCTOR HL          29,505,123     34,938,212     -5,433,089

UMC      UNITED MICRO-ADR          20,676,391     26,090,903     -5,414,512

USB      US BANCORP                40,065,879     45,475,557     -5,409,678

V        VISA INC-CLASS A          14,285,777     19,247,215     -4,961,438

S        SPRINT NEXTEL CO         133,208,815    138,115,420     -4,906,605

MGM      MGM MIRAGE                73,600,426     78,363,366     -4,762,940

RTN      RAYTHEON CO                4,049,316      8,804,167     -4,754,851

STD      BANCO SANTAN-ADR           7,469,870     12,056,787     -4,586,917

SVU      SUPERVALU INC             13,305,164     17,834,968     -4,529,804

SCHW     SCHWAB (CHARLES)          45,383,310     49,780,977     -4,397,667

STI      SUNTRUST BANKS            34,458,160     38,844,800     -4,386,640

TD       TORONTO DOM BANK          17,430,204     21,783,844     -4,353,640

XLP      SPDR-CONS STAPLE          16,281,634     20,589,040     -4,307,406

KRE      SPDR KBW REGIONA          38,008,007     42,303,461     -4,295,454

DOW      DOW CHEMICAL              19,584,819     23,879,183     -4,294,364

STP      SUNTECH POWE-ADR          17,344,830     21,555,490     -4,210,660

TZA      SMALL CAP BEAR 3           3,670,028      7,658,566     -3,988,538

HOG      HARLEY-DAVIDSON           30,907,807     34,834,898     -3,927,091

MO       ALTRIA GROUP INC          64,905,754     68,821,302     -3,915,548

UNH      UNITEDHEALTH GRP           9,161,940     13,062,611     -3,900,671

RCL      ROYAL CARIBBEAN           23,907,206     27,636,136     -3,728,930

AHL      ASPEN INSURANCE            4,404,154      7,967,385     -3,563,231

CIM      CHIMERA INV CORP          13,249,230     16,779,169     -3,529,939

HOV      HOVNANIAN ENT-A           18,264,200     21,642,871     -3,378,671

KR       KROGER CO                 14,376,449     17,699,413     -3,322,964

LYV      LIVE NATION ENTE           5,235,212      8,536,113     -3,300,901

HOT      STARWOOD HOTELS           22,645,571     25,922,224     -3,276,653

MI       MARSHALL &ILSLEY          19,968,875     23,241,160     -3,272,285

KO       COCA-COLA CO              16,770,737     20,024,979     -3,254,242

CAT      CATERPILLAR INC           25,000,740     28,110,233     -3,109,493

GNW      GENWORTH FINANCI          11,269,854     14,376,829     -3,106,975

Grafico NYSE- SHORT INTEREST

  

Tutto questo deve indurci a metterci repentinamente short? Direi proprio di no. Ma quantomeno ci fa capire che la situazione sta pian piano indirizzandosi verso una minore positività. E’ presto per fare date. Ma come detto in apertura, il target tecnico è vicino. Staremo a vedere. 

 

Grafico SP 500 con DMA ®

 

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