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Short Interest e Insider Trading
Scritto il 15 Aprile 2010 alle 11:39 da
Oramai siamo ad un passo dal target. Sembrava impossibile, ed invece no. Perentoriamente, pian pianino, il mercato azionario si è mosso al rialzo e, bruciando le tappe, incurante dell’ipercomprato e delle vicissitudini macro sul debito, ormai si trova ad un tiro di schioppo da quel livello posto a 61.8% di Fibonacci.
I volumi si mantengono comunque sempre elevati anche se in leggera diminuzione. Occorre però notare che i cosiddetto Short Interest sono ormai ad un passo dal top. Ed inoltre, non possiamo certo sottovalutare il fatto che le cosiddette “mani forti” e ben informate si stanno muovendo. Ma non in acquisto. Bensì in vendita. Il sito MarketWatch http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-insiders-pick-up-their-selling-2010-04-14 ce ne dà testimonianza.
Last week, according to the latest issue of Vickers’ service, insiders on balance sold 4.96 shares of their companies’ stock for every one that they bought.
That’s more than double the ratio for the week in early February when the stock market hit its low for the correction, when it stood at 1.96 to 1. In fact, the recent ratio is quite close to the 5.15-to-1 ratio that prevailed in the week in which the stock market hit its January high — just before the correction commenced.
To be sure, there is a lot of volatility to the weekly ratios, especially when the overall volume of insider transactions is relatively light — as indeed they have been lately. This is one of the reasons that Vickers also calculates an eight-week average of their sell-to-buy ratio. It currently stands at 4.18-to-1.
Quindi risulta chiaro che l’insider trading si sta spostando verso una chiara posizione bearish. E sempre in ambito di analisi bearish oggi vi presento un interessante report.
Vi propongo un documento che ritengo valido per capire dove va e come si comporta lo short interest. Vi presento, alla data del 31 marzo, le 100 posizioni più importanti shortate sul NYSE, i 50 maggiori cambiamenti di short interest sempre sul NYSE (le società con volumi maggiori) sia la rialzo che al ribasso. Accompagnate dal grafico che ne testimonia l’andamento medio a livello volumetrico.
Credo che sia un documento esclusivo che vi farà capire come si sta evolvendo il mercato azionario.
TOP of the short interest
Ticker Avg. Daily
Symbol Company March 31 March 15 Volume
=============================================================================
C CITIGROUP INC 523,504,424 552,413,116 596,836,756
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF 232,808,624 251,896,674 183,621,927
IWM ISHARES-RUS 2000 195,796,980 224,275,657 57,952,974
F FORD MOTOR CO 182,004,206 191,090,805 167,680,593
S SPRINT NEXTEL CO 133,208,815 138,115,420 62,447,655
FNM FANNIE MAE 122,836,168 114,631,965 22,514,095
Q QWEST COMMUNICAT 121,988,373 95,616,645 33,321,021
XLF SPDR-FINL SELECT 121,753,861 135,556,937 83,368,406
BAC BANK OF AMERICA 92,990,045 105,490,138 167,275,258
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP 86,216,436 82,565,605 27,430,760
AA ALCOA INC 86,116,626 80,189,371 37,435,659
EEM ISHARES-EMG MKT 80,302,047 69,718,561 62,237,687
NOK NOKIA CORP-ADR 76,968,561 79,521,437 18,628,911
RF REGIONS FINANCIA 75,117,710 73,802,029 23,061,211
MGM MGM MIRAGE 73,600,426 78,363,366 26,136,070
IYR ISHARES-DJ REAL 73,167,494 87,552,945 14,023,167
XRT SPDR S&P RETAIL 71,677,308 80,799,666 12,343,735
GE GENERAL ELECTRIC 70,081,135 64,508,199 105,626,893
FRE FREDDIE MAC 67,341,025 73,995,584 10,496,381
MO ALTRIA GROUP INC 64,905,754 68,821,302 13,914,494
ABK AMBAC FINL GROUP 60,395,046 54,472,362 20,978,908
WFC WELLS FARGO & CO 60,116,195 55,339,341 35,780,449
DIS WALT DISNEY CO 58,297,071 50,583,705 14,018,830
SNV SYNOVUS FINL 56,084,448 55,061,726 19,199,113
EK EASTMAN KODAK 52,252,275 51,596,724 6,597,090
FXI ISHARES FT/XI CH 52,172,749 46,297,916 26,477,301
MOT MOTOROLA INC 51,639,572 50,782,198 20,656,960
KEY KEYCORP 50,083,122 44,017,317 15,967,643
HST HOST HOTELS & RE 49,962,302 47,929,201 10,578,719
VZ VERIZON COMMUNIC 48,352,298 38,711,620 17,994,665
SLB SCHLUMBERGER LTD 48,051,597 44,277,354 12,443,704
T AT&T INC 47,295,552 45,409,105 25,263,869
LVS LAS VEGAS SANDS 45,917,095 48,897,246 42,031,554
SCHW SCHWAB (CHARLES) 45,383,310 49,780,977 11,128,625
BMY BRISTOL-MYER SQB 45,293,233 39,013,228 13,102,086
VALE VALE SA-SP ADR 45,264,749 46,490,325 27,418,080
SKS SAKS INC 45,189,320 45,695,914 4,877,129
PFE PFIZER INC 44,540,816 42,684,923 62,080,057
FTR FRONTIER COMMUNI 42,447,933 41,666,525 4,543,150
KFT KRAFT FOODS INC 42,335,982 41,923,062 14,081,908
EFA ISHARES-MSCI EAF 41,231,558 40,653,244 17,771,204
USB US BANCORP 40,065,879 45,475,557 9,805,574
HD HOME DEPOT INC 39,783,711 39,321,802 13,078,438
SD SANDRIDGE ENERGY 39,647,104 34,318,641 6,684,858
EMC EMC CORP/MASS 39,378,045 40,836,332 22,120,519
HL HECLA MINING CO 38,782,810 34,576,415 10,383,397
SLE SARA LEE CORP 38,715,819 45,295,411 8,092,269
KRE SPDR KBW REGIONA 38,008,007 42,303,461 2,613,801
AMD ADV MICRO DEVICE 37,624,587 44,545,118 15,367,207
BHI BAKER HUGHES INC 37,231,406 34,501,531 6,514,257
CHK CHESAPEAKE ENERG 35,695,976 36,922,247 24,521,229
CX CEMEX SAB-SP ADR 34,655,162 23,542,802 12,284,063
AIG AMERICAN INTERNA 34,617,181 34,958,226 15,891,604
STI SUNTRUST BANKS 34,458,160 38,844,800 6,470,879
PLD PROLOGIS 33,397,471 34,909,172 7,212,443
CMS CMS ENERGY CORP 33,332,446 33,849,744 2,387,791
WM WASTE MANAGEMENT 33,310,100 31,741,048 2,385,688
LCC US AIRWAYS GROUP 33,186,994 35,843,946 5,344,391
PHM PULTE GROUP INC 33,111,215 35,074,712 6,286,878
AMR AMR CORP 32,495,586 31,390,767 12,114,516
MAR MARRIOTT INTL-A 32,398,603 31,279,406 5,413,165
XLE SPDR-ENERGY SEL 32,083,466 32,700,675 19,361,680
LSI LSI CORP 32,060,072 29,684,351 15,717,645
GCI GANNETT CO 31,161,491 29,761,709 4,048,158
HOG HARLEY-DAVIDSON 30,907,807 34,834,898 4,524,571
ODP OFFICE DEPOT INC 30,703,570 30,956,823 4,920,664
PG PROCTER & GAMBLE 30,641,736 31,593,237 9,992,261
MCO MOODY’S CORP 30,581,757 30,865,666 2,276,639
NYB NY COMM BANCORP 30,550,158 33,454,314 4,404,230
JPM JPMORGAN CHASE 30,401,335 26,449,001 33,524,398
RCI ROGERS COMMUNI-B 30,172,360 28,054,632 441,527
MTG MGIC INVT CORP 29,979,718 29,461,597 6,945,551
HTZ HERTZ GLOBAL HOL 29,562,187 28,169,812 4,110,427
SMH SEMICONDUCTOR HL 29,505,123 34,938,212 12,936,531
LLY ELI LILLY & CO 28,802,348 27,059,142 7,036,106
NWL NEWELL RUBBERMAI 28,801,015 28,159,295 3,635,370
NLY ANNALY CAPITAL M 28,620,624 29,879,167 12,599,698
JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS 28,570,000 30,388,255 4,962,362
BRK/B BERKSHIRE HATH-B 27,885,605 34,945,317 4,920,187
TXT TEXTRON INC 27,690,247 26,168,984 3,690,837
MF MF GLOBAL HOLDIN 27,420,018 25,779,339 5,907,929
BBT BB&T CORP 27,174,397 22,951,301 6,027,745
M MACY’S INC 27,060,485 28,938,180 8,529,166
BSX BOSTON SCIENTIFC 26,558,805 23,130,252 53,517,826
FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN 26,433,998 27,178,591 12,900,746
XLB SPDR-MATERIALS 26,392,568 28,365,286 11,579,672
X US STEEL CORP 26,192,838 26,521,384 15,943,383
PM PHILIP MORRIS 26,120,163 25,401,593 7,161,544
TER TERADYNE INC 25,490,932 26,058,515 4,855,527
MWW MONSTER WORLDWID 25,390,641 24,922,011 1,976,557
IPG INTERPUBLIC GRP 25,256,754 23,837,316 5,232,075
DHI DR HORTON INC 25,243,522 26,519,830 4,780,077
CAT CATERPILLAR INC 25,000,740 28,110,233 8,683,311
GME GAMESTOP CORP-A 24,764,692 27,539,870 6,385,414
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENT 24,692,468 24,784,842 12,958,819
BBD BRADESCO-ADR 24,652,947 22,889,901 9,880,140
ALU ALCATEL-LUCE-ADR 24,579,870 20,880,318 13,356,048
MBI MBIA INC 24,370,305 27,114,545 7,489,468
LIZ LIZ CLAIBORNE 23,958,367 25,362,695 2,123,958
RCL ROYAL CARIBBEAN 23,907,206 27,636,136 3,035,142
TOP on the change SHORT INTEREST
TOP 50 INCREASES
Ticker
Symbol Company March 31 March 15 Change
=============================================================================
Q QWEST COMMUNICAT 121,988,373 95,616,645 26,371,728
CX CEMEX SAB-SP ADR 34,655,162 23,542,802 11,112,360
EEM ISHARES-EMG MKT 80,302,047 69,718,561 10,583,486
VZ VERIZON COMMUNIC 48,352,298 38,711,620 9,640,678
FNM FANNIE MAE 122,836,168 114,631,965 8,204,203
DIS WALT DISNEY CO 58,297,071 50,583,705 7,713,366
BMY BRISTOL-MYER SQB 45,293,233 39,013,228 6,280,005
XOP SPDR OIL&GAS EXP 20,895,428 14,789,518 6,105,910
KEY KEYCORP 50,083,122 44,017,317 6,065,805
VWO VANGUARD EM MK E 16,277,763 10,251,882 6,025,881
AA ALCOA INC 86,116,626 80,189,371 5,927,255
ABK AMBAC FINL GROUP 60,395,046 54,472,362 5,922,684
VXX IPATH-S&P S/T FU 13,242,918 7,355,493 5,887,425
FXI ISHARES FT/XI CH 52,172,749 46,297,916 5,874,833
GE GENERAL ELECTRIC 70,081,135 64,508,199 5,572,936
SD SANDRIDGE ENERGY 39,647,104 34,318,641 5,328,463
WFR MEMC ELEC MATER 22,802,376 17,831,916 4,970,460
IYT ISHARES-DJ US TR 8,056,657 3,089,793 4,966,864
WFC WELLS FARGO & CO 60,116,195 55,339,341 4,776,854
AET AETNA INC 10,671,252 6,259,272 4,411,980
BBT BB&T CORP 27,174,397 22,951,301 4,223,096
HL HECLA MINING CO 38,782,810 34,576,415 4,206,395
XLV SPDR-HEALTH CARE 17,825,416 13,749,415 4,076,001
JPM JPMORGAN CHASE 30,401,335 26,449,001 3,952,334
EWJ ISHARES-JAPAN 17,706,623 13,847,772 3,858,851
UNG US NAT GAS FD LP 16,328,519 12,551,103 3,777,416
SLB SCHLUMBERGER LTD 48,051,597 44,277,354 3,774,243
ALU ALCATEL-LUCE-ADR 24,579,870 20,880,318 3,699,552
TSM TAIWAN SEMIC-ADR 19,556,411 15,870,049 3,686,362
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP 86,216,436 82,565,605 3,650,831
WMB WILLIAMS COS INC 11,726,268 8,267,126 3,459,142
BSX BOSTON SCIENTIFC 26,558,805 23,130,252 3,428,553
LTD LTD BRANDS INC 19,456,053 16,033,272 3,422,781
FBR FIBRIA CELUL-ADR 12,300,706 8,949,919 3,350,787
PFG PRINCIPAL FINL 12,667,463 9,349,176 3,318,287
RWT REDWOOD TRUST 7,026,490 3,732,747 3,293,743
HK PETROHAWK ENERGY 18,253,454 14,975,943 3,277,511
DAL DELTA AIR LI 20,558,052 17,296,427 3,261,625
NI NISOURCE INC 10,606,034 7,577,106 3,028,928
BK BANK NY MELLON 17,902,581 14,909,979 2,992,602
PCG PG&E CORP 8,758,846 5,794,614 2,964,232
UPS UNITED PARCEL-B 14,938,503 12,049,103 2,889,400
FE FIRSTENERGY CORP 8,631,201 5,874,947 2,756,254
BHI BAKER HUGHES INC 37,231,406 34,501,531 2,729,875
VIA/B VIACOM INC-B 10,886,700 8,163,409 2,723,291
EEE EVERGREEN ENERGY 15,264,584 12,614,008 2,650,576
CVS CVS CAREMARK COR 16,750,217 14,203,929 2,546,288
TJX TJX COS INC 13,542,682 11,078,034 2,464,648
TOL TOLL BROTHERS 15,054,009 12,639,201 2,414,808
EXC EXELON CORP 12,372,453 9,960,035 2,412,418
TOP 50 DECREASES
Ticker
Symbol Company March 31 March 15 Change
=============================================================================
C CITIGROUP INC 523,504,424 552,413,116 -28,908,692
IWM ISHARES-RUS 2000 195,796,980 224,275,657 -28,478,677
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF 232,808,624 251,896,674 -19,088,050
DNR DENBURY RESOURCE 18,384,666 36,397,645 -18,012,979
IYR ISHARES-DJ REAL 73,167,494 87,552,945 -14,385,451
XLF SPDR-FINL SELECT 121,753,861 135,556,937 -13,803,076
BAC BANK OF AMERICA 92,990,045 105,490,138 -12,500,093
SWK STANLEY BLACK & 4,609,175 16,801,306 -12,192,131
XRT SPDR S&P RETAIL 71,677,308 80,799,666 -9,122,358
F FORD MOTOR CO 182,004,206 191,090,805 -9,086,599
XRX XEROX CORP 10,752,585 18,449,452 -7,696,867
RAD RITE AID CORP 20,625,913 28,280,705 -7,654,792
BRK/B BERKSHIRE HATH-B 27,885,605 34,945,317 -7,059,712
AMD ADV MICRO DEVICE 37,624,587 44,545,118 -6,920,531
FRE FREDDIE MAC 67,341,025 73,995,584 -6,654,559
SLE SARA LEE CORP 38,715,819 45,295,411 -6,579,592
RY ROYAL BK CANADA 16,200,273 22,497,359 -6,297,086
CVE CENOVUS ENERGY 5,721,273 11,376,903 -5,655,630
EWH ISHARES-HONGKONG 6,134,680 11,759,094 -5,624,414
SMH SEMICONDUCTOR HL 29,505,123 34,938,212 -5,433,089
UMC UNITED MICRO-ADR 20,676,391 26,090,903 -5,414,512
USB US BANCORP 40,065,879 45,475,557 -5,409,678
V VISA INC-CLASS A 14,285,777 19,247,215 -4,961,438
S SPRINT NEXTEL CO 133,208,815 138,115,420 -4,906,605
MGM MGM MIRAGE 73,600,426 78,363,366 -4,762,940
RTN RAYTHEON CO 4,049,316 8,804,167 -4,754,851
STD BANCO SANTAN-ADR 7,469,870 12,056,787 -4,586,917
SVU SUPERVALU INC 13,305,164 17,834,968 -4,529,804
SCHW SCHWAB (CHARLES) 45,383,310 49,780,977 -4,397,667
STI SUNTRUST BANKS 34,458,160 38,844,800 -4,386,640
TD TORONTO DOM BANK 17,430,204 21,783,844 -4,353,640
XLP SPDR-CONS STAPLE 16,281,634 20,589,040 -4,307,406
KRE SPDR KBW REGIONA 38,008,007 42,303,461 -4,295,454
DOW DOW CHEMICAL 19,584,819 23,879,183 -4,294,364
STP SUNTECH POWE-ADR 17,344,830 21,555,490 -4,210,660
TZA SMALL CAP BEAR 3 3,670,028 7,658,566 -3,988,538
HOG HARLEY-DAVIDSON 30,907,807 34,834,898 -3,927,091
MO ALTRIA GROUP INC 64,905,754 68,821,302 -3,915,548
UNH UNITEDHEALTH GRP 9,161,940 13,062,611 -3,900,671
RCL ROYAL CARIBBEAN 23,907,206 27,636,136 -3,728,930
AHL ASPEN INSURANCE 4,404,154 7,967,385 -3,563,231
CIM CHIMERA INV CORP 13,249,230 16,779,169 -3,529,939
HOV HOVNANIAN ENT-A 18,264,200 21,642,871 -3,378,671
KR KROGER CO 14,376,449 17,699,413 -3,322,964
LYV LIVE NATION ENTE 5,235,212 8,536,113 -3,300,901
HOT STARWOOD HOTELS 22,645,571 25,922,224 -3,276,653
MI MARSHALL &ILSLEY 19,968,875 23,241,160 -3,272,285
KO COCA-COLA CO 16,770,737 20,024,979 -3,254,242
CAT CATERPILLAR INC 25,000,740 28,110,233 -3,109,493
GNW GENWORTH FINANCI 11,269,854 14,376,829 -3,106,975
Grafico NYSE- SHORT INTEREST
Tutto questo deve indurci a metterci repentinamente short? Direi proprio di no. Ma quantomeno ci fa capire che la situazione sta pian piano indirizzandosi verso una minore positività. E’ presto per fare date. Ma come detto in apertura, il target tecnico è vicino. Staremo a vedere.
Grafico SP 500 con DMA ®
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