La quiete tra le tempeste?

Scritto il alle 16:07 da mattacchiuz

Archiviati i tanto spettacolari quanto drammatici tracolli dei mesi scorsi, oggi Realtor, l’associazione delle agenzie immobiliari americane, ci informa che il mese di agosto è stato foriero di una qualche ripresa nelle vendite di case esistenti. 4.13 milioni sono state le compravendite di case ad agosto, dato destagionalizzato e annualizzato, che spingono la serie ad un rialzo del 7.6%.  Nel grafico, l’interessante confronto tra il numero di case vendute e l’indice dei mutui della Mortgage Bankers Association, di cui si è parlato ieri.

La situazione sembrerebbe normalizzarsi. Il condizionale qui è davvero più che d’obbligo. Per ora, in seguito proprio all’incredibile debolezza manifestata tra maggio e luglio, era più che probabile almeno un qualche rimbalzo degno di nota.  Nulla lascia intravedere la prospettiva di una qualche ripresa, se non la legge dei grandi numeri, la stessa che Romolo Augustolo evocava nel 476 d.C. quando affermava che Roma sarebbe tornata grande.


23 commenti Commenta
Scritto il 23 Settembre 2010 at 16:37

Romolo Augustolo: vichingo= previsione sbagliata su Roma: previsione sbagliata su Saras. Però a differenza di Romolo, non credo che Saras fallisca e in un arco temporale di medio termine tornerà almeno a 1,80 euro.

Scritto il 23 Settembre 2010 at 17:08

beh… speriamo che l’impero non cada allora…

Scritto il 23 Settembre 2010 at 17:13


si calcola che ci siano circa 11 milioni di case (fra foreclosure e ..quasi) in vendita.
Sono più di 2 anni di stock!!! Come hai giustamente osservato, il dato di oggi è irrilevante.

Scritto il 23 Settembre 2010 at 17:19

Si incrementano le vendite di case, io ne ho comprata una, vi piace?

Scritto il 23 Settembre 2010 at 17:26


🙂 ma quando fai pipi, che succede in quel bagno????? 🙂

Scritto il 23 Settembre 2010 at 17:27

…secondo me, quella lì.. si rivende bene

Scritto il 23 Settembre 2010 at 17:42

Le illusioni e gli allucinogeni salvano il mercato

Scritto il 23 Settembre 2010 at 18:07

mi sono messo short sulle tue previsioni , ricordando ciò che avevi annunciato tempo fa , speriamo bene ! Tu cosa pensi ?

Scritto il 23 Settembre 2010 at 18:36

Ciao DT volevo chiederti dove posso trovare il grafico Gindex ECLRG che avevi illustrato tempo fa e che dovrebbe indicare gli acquisti short se non sbaglio , oppure AATBEAR che trovo molto interessanti . Ti ringrazio , buona serata .

Scritto il 23 Settembre 2010 at 19:02


…ovviamente qui prossimamente! :mrgreen:
Per esempio su TRENDS di questa settimana se non ricordo male ne parlo…

Scritto il 23 Settembre 2010 at 19:12

Non sento più Shortforewer

Scritto il 23 Settembre 2010 at 19:15

Dream Theater,

Si infatti ho visto proprio su Trends e mi chiedevo se si trova per esempio su StockCharts ,
ciso DT buona serata .

Scritto il 23 Settembre 2010 at 19:16

scusa l’errore
ciao e buona serata !

    Scritto il 23 Settembre 2010 at 20:40

    No problem, purtroppo non credo che l’ECLRG si reperibile in rete, l’AAII bear credo di sì…

Scritto il 24 Settembre 2010 at 00:29

Bell’articolo sulla nuova depressione:

A quote from Gerald Celente during a recent interview, “The greatest depression is underway”, may sound apocalyptic to some, disagreeable to others, but probably rings true with the unemployed and the record number of 44 million Americans under the official poverty level (14% of all Americans, or 1 out of 7).

Even though you will probably never hear the word “depression” from billionaires like George Soros, he and the the world’s billionaires are getting worried about the economy. Soros recently called the current economy “Blah”. Steve Schwarzman, billionaire founder of the Blackstone group is also worried, worried about the negative effects of the current administration tax hike proposals. He said that any such activity will be “like when Hitler invaded Poland in 1939″. The billionaires know the risks to the current system… things like the weapon of mass destruction 615 trillion dollar over-the-counter derivative time bomb that is growing daily, protected by lobbyists to government, and could blow up at any time and end the world as we know it. They know the fragility of the debt burdened house-of-cards system that we live within.

Scritto il 24 Settembre 2010 at 00:30

La Cina e’ sempre in boooom:

If you read the business news or watch CNBC, you’ve been bombarded with a steady stream of experts warning you about China. Warning you about the Chinese stock market, warning you about the Chinese real estate bubble, warning you about the Chinese economy.

The majority of those China worrywarts have been crying “wolf” for a long, long time. Like Samuel Clemens said, “the reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated” and that is certainly true of the Chinese economy.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao speaking at the World Economic Summit in Tianjin, said, “China’s economy is now in good shape, featuring fast growth, gradual structural improvement, rising employment and basic price stability.”

Scritto il 24 Settembre 2010 at 00:31

I debiti USA sono come un castello di carte:

The U.S. fiscal position is a house of cards that is becoming increasingly unstable, according to the latest Boekch Letter (via Paul Kedrosky).

Not much of a surprise, but the details of how impossible it is for the U.S. to escape this position may shock:

From the Boekch Letter, via Paul Kedrosky, (emphasis ours):

The fact is there isn’t much to cut, compared to say, 1945 when debt was very high but massive wartime military expenditures were set to collapse. Third, successful fiscal consolidation programs usually involved steep currency devaluations and sharp interest rate declines. The U.S. cannot easily generate a significant dollar depreciation given its reserve currency status and need for massive foreign financing of its budget deficit. Neither would other countries welcome a large drop in the dollar while global deflationary pressures are acute. Lowering interest rates is also not an option. Short rates are close to zero and long rates are about two standard deviations on the side of being too low. Growth is the key but there is no magic bullet there. The U.S. is in a long wave decline, it is deleveraging, its population is aging and the deficit is crowding out private investment.

Scritto il 24 Settembre 2010 at 00:32

Altro bell’articolo sulla distruzione di massa delle economie:

The most valuable economic substance in the world is capital. It is not “money” if we define money as pieces of green paper. Governments cannot create wealth by printing money. If they could we wouldn’t have to work.

The formation of capital plus a culture of entrepreneurship is the only way to create economic well being. When government policies destroy capital it diminishes everyone’s economic well being.

Capital is saved wealth. If you produce goods and you make a profit and save the profit, then you have created capital. Ditto with your labor. If you spend all of your wages, you’ve saved none of the wealth created from the goods you made and you have no capital.

It takes societies a long time to create and amass capital. In the U.S. we have a dynamic financial infrastructure to generate wealth/capital. It started with the rights guaranteed by the Constitution, but it took about a century to create our wealth-creating financial infrastructure. While you can criticize it all you want, wealth is widely distributed in America when one compares our standard of living to elsewhere.

This financial infrastructure is called capitalism.

Our current economic policies are destroying capital and our well being. These policies are now globalized. They are the Economics of Mass Destruction.

Scritto il 24 Settembre 2010 at 00:33

Oro a 3000$?

One of the best returning assets in the past year as well as in the past 3 or 5 years has been gold. Yes, that old metal that has been around for centuries and was for some time the default currency used in the world. Its role has changed but Gold continues to be hyped. And while you might have missed a lot of gains if you did not buy gold already, there are many bright minds who think that Gold is headed much much higher in the next few years. We decided to take a deeper look into how and why that could happen and how to profit from it of course.

A decade ago, trading or owning gold was something that was done by one type of institution on a large scale; central banks. But nowadays, Gold is owned by central banks, pension funds, hedge funds, institutional and even retail investors. It is becoming a more “trendy” investment thanks to those who pump it as the best investment, or as the only way to do well when everything collapses. More on that in a bit. There are many ways of owning gold of course and that has also contributed to gold’s recent emergence. Let’s take a quick look at the ways to own gold or gold exposure:

Scritto il 24 Settembre 2010 at 00:34

Vecchio articolo da un sito sempre valido:

Chris Martenson is one of the few visionaries who has long been warning about the disastrous effects of out of control spending and debt monetization (as well as unmasking the shell game the government has been engaging in for the past two years as it attempts to sequester foreign MBS holdings and exchange them for Treasury securities by tracking the TIC-custody account divergence), and his blog should be required reading for all interested in the intricacies of Fed intervention in rates. Today, Martenson has a post which, however, touches on something completely different: survival. In his words: “I was interviewed by Jack Spirko of The Survival Podcast. We had a meaty exploration of the core tenets of the Three Es (Economy, Energy, Environment) in light of recent developments, then delved pretty deeply into strategies for building personal resilience, which is the main focus of Jack’s regular podcasts. I enjoyed myself and think the discussion is worth listening to.” Yet this is not a bunker survivalist manifesto: “A note on TSP: while it has a “survival” theme, it’s not “survivalist” in its approach. Jack is focused on helping his audience learn how to increase their degree of personal preparation – much in the same way we’re focused on it here at His mantra is “Helping you live the life you want, if times get tough, or even if they don’t.” Like me, he’s interested in guiding people to take steps that will improve their quality of life no matter how things unfold in the future. Speaking with him before and during our interview, I found him to be thoughtful, measured, and passionate about making a positive difference.”

Scritto il 24 Settembre 2010 at 00:35

Il fallimento nel controllo del denaro:

As quantitative easing again gets underway the failure of QE1 becomes more obvious. The crisis worsens and the illusion of any recovery is light years away. Over the past three years almost $13 trillion that we know about has been thrown down a rat hole to bail out banking, Wall Street, insurance and selected elitist entities. The dollar figure is probably much higher. We will never know, because the privately owned Federal Reserve makes its own rules. Everything they do is a state secret. The five successful quarters were only a mirage. The funds have been vaporized among lending and financial institutions worldwide. There has been no accounting and there never will be as long as the Fed is not audited and investigated. We are in an inflationary depression and have been since February 2009. Massive injections of liquidity do not work, nor have they worked for centuries under these conditions. You cannot resurrect an insolvent country in a system that is corrupt. The controllers of the US economy are about to lead the American economy and financial structure into a great dark pit. The US and the world is soon to face a global breakdown deliberately engineered by the forces of darkness.

As usual the Fed was late in applying remedial therapy and that will prove costly. The funding of US debt by foreigners has become very costly and some are jumping ship and some are even using their dollars to buy gold. The game is changing, but will other countries risk a worldwide collapse by not rescuing the US economy? We don’t know but it doesn’t look promising. Monetization is coming and most nations are frozen in the headlights. Washington and NYC have applied pressure over and over again, but their arrogance has not gone unnoticed. There is a pretense of control as unemployment climbs and stability comes more into question. Headlining unemployment, U3, at 9-3/4% is dumb, when anyone with any sense can see U6 and the bogus birth/death ratio. Yes, unemployment is 21-5/8% and for those who want to see the truth it is visible worldwide. Real estate continues to descend, as the consumer reduces debt and consumption.

Scritto il 24 Settembre 2010 at 00:37

Buonanotte…. domani riprendo… ricordo che gli articoli postati sotto i links sono solo un pezzettino degli stessi… tanto per dare un idea… altrimenti occuperei tutto il blog….

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