Financial LINKS – Braccio di Ferro

Scritto il alle 08:03 da Danilo DT

Financial  Web Links

La Cina non molla. E gli USA nemmeno. Torna la tematica della guerra valutaria. G7 inconcludente come sempre. Ma questa è anche la prima vera settimana delle trimestrali, ma nel frattempo il sistema bancario desta preoccupazioni. Inizia una nuova settimana, e sarà bellicosa, come sempre. Intanto vediamo che esito avrà il braccio di ferro tra USA e Cina, due stati che saranno protagonisti di diverse analisi su questo blog nel corso della settimana.

a)     FMI: non è stata risolta la guerra delle Valute. G7: Nulla di fatto (LINK)

b)      USA: la Cina deve rivalutare! (LINK)

c)      La Cina ribadisce, l’apprezzamento deve essere graduale (LINK)

d)     Fed e politica monetaria: la coperta è corta (LINK)

e)      Follie di mercato: va tutto male, però va tutto bene… (LINK)

f)       Settimana di trimestrali di Fuoco (LINK)

g)      John Mauldin: vola il lavoro temporaneo negli USA (LINK)

h)      Crisi Grecia: si capisce che ci vorrà più tempo… (LINK)

i)        Banche che si fanno il lifting nascondendo il marcio (LINK)

j)        Basilea 3 manderà KO le banche medio piccole? (LINK)

k)      Nei paesi emergenti risparmio a rischio bolla (LINK)

l)        CDS: la Cina si avvicina agli USA (LINK)

m)    PIMCO: molto è stato fatto, ma ora occorrono altri grandi sforzi altrimenti… (LINK)

n)      Il Mago Obama(LINK)

o)      Se pensavate pessimistico… qui qualcuno vi batte di certo ! (LINK)

E voi, invece, cosa avete letto di interessante? Scrivetelo nei commenti!

Problemi con gli articoli in inglese? Inserite il link in questo traduttore!

Ovviamente siete tutti invitati non solo a commentare le notizie ma anche a inserire voi stessi links che possano essere utili alla comunità finanziaria.

E stamattina alle 9, per chi ha tempo e voglia, DT in versione FLASH su Class CNBC.



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7 commenti Commenta
Scritto il 11 ottobre 2010 at 09:49

Buongiorno, come sempre DT ha scelto i migliori links del giorno, comunque alcuni vorrei aggiungerli anch’io:
Il crash del 2010 e’ su di noi…:

December of 2009 we published Gerald Celente’s trends for 2010, with a follow-up post in January titled Gerald Celente on Collapsing Markets, Terrorism, and Currency Devaluation. Reviewing Celente’s forecasts from nearly a year ago it’s clear that this man knows what he’s talking about, accurately predicting several trends that took hold this year including neo-survivalism, anti-immigration, the not-made-in-China movement, the rise of alternative media and the fall of the mainstream, as well as the crash of 2010, which many believe may be taking place right now. Celente not only forecast the Crash of 2010, but made specific note that it would be led by a currency crisis – which just so happens to be playing out in the US dollar as of late.

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Scritto il 11 ottobre 2010 at 09:50

Continuano i problemi con le commodities alimentari, vorrei ricordare che non si tratta solo di speculazioni si tratta di scarsita’ di raccolti…:
When alternative media outlets like SHTFplan and others warn of global food supply problems like we did in December of 2009 and just recently in our article Agflation Threat: Food Price Trend is ‘Terrifying’ we are often dismissed as fear mongers. Most of your neighbors, who spend their days looking forward to the next Jersey Shores party destination, have no clue what is transpiring behind the scenes, out of view of mainstream media.

Perhaps now they’ll start getting concerned, or, they’ll simply hope that world leaders will be able to find a solution to counteract the natural effects of weather and hyperinflationary monetary policy

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Scritto il 11 ottobre 2010 at 09:51

Sulla guerra valutaria in corso:
From the Friday BBH FX Special. Also see Win Thin’s Thursday comments on this here.

Recent weeks have seen much talk about “currency wars”. This talk suggests that many countries are seeking the devaluation of their currencies in order to promote their exports, which in turn forces other countries to respond with similar efforts. It harkens back to the disastrous beggar-thy-neighbor policy that was seen between the two world wars. While the foreign exchange market is one of many arenas in which nation states compete for advantage, calling what is happening now a currency war is not only wrong — it is dangerous

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Scritto il 11 ottobre 2010 at 09:51

Ecco cosa ci aspetta durante la settimana:
The key release this week will be September retail sales on Friday. Also Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will try to explain the objectives of QE2 on Friday “Monetary Policy Objectives and Tools in a Low-Inflation Environment”.

—– Likely, but not scheduled —–

Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ This is the diesel fuel index for September (a measure of transportation).
CoreLogic House Price Index for August. This release could show further declines in house prices. The index is a weighted 3 month average for June, July and August.
Association of American Railroads rail traffic indicators for September. Trucking, rail traffic and the Ceridian diesel fuel index are all measures of transportation (a coincident indicator).

—– Monday, Oct 11th —–

2:45 PM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the National Association for Business Economics meeting in Denver: “Macroprudential Supervision and Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis World”

—– Tuesday, Oct 12th—–

7:30 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September. This index has been showing small businesses remain pessimistic and the survey shows that the major concern of small businesses is lack of customers.
11:45 AM: Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig speaks at the National Association for Business Economics meeting in Denver. “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy: Challenges Ahead”
2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of September 21, 2010. Investors will focus on any discussion of QE2.

—– Wednesday, Oct 13th —–

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit. The index has increased a little recently – possibly due to borrowers trying to beat the slightly tighter FHA requirements.
7:45 PM: Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker will speak in Chapel Hill, NC.

—– Thursday, Oct 14th —–

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Consensus is for a slight decrease to 443K from 445K last week.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to increase to $44 billion (from $42.8 billion in July).
8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for September. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in producer prices.

—– Friday, Oct 15th —–

8:15 AM: Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference “Monetary Policy Objectives and Tools in a Low-Inflation Environment”
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for September. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in prices. This is being closely watched for further disinflation, and also because Q3 is the quarter the annual annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is calculated for Social Security (this will make it official that there will be no change in 2011).
8:30 AM: Retail Sales for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase from August.
8:30 AM: Empire Manufacturing Survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 8.0, up from 4.1 in September. These regional surveys have been showing a slowdown in manufacturing and are being closely watched right now.
9:15 AM: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart participates in a question-and-answer session on the economy in Atlanta.
9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment preliminary for October. The consensus is for a slight increase to 69.0 from 68.2 in September.
10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales for August. Consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories in August.
After 4:00 PM: The FDIC has really slowed down closing banks – even though the Unofficial problem bank list continues to increase. The pace of closures will probably pickup soon …

—– Saturday, Oct 16th —–

8:15 AM: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks at Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference

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Scritto il 11 ottobre 2010 at 09:53

Un occhio su quello che sono costate le guerra fino ad oggi:
Federal outlays and revenues, 1940-2015
The following chart shows federal outlays and revenues from 1940 to the proposed levels in 2015. The difference between the two equals the federal deficit or surplus.

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Scritto il 11 ottobre 2010 at 09:54

Un dubbio che l’attuale guerra valutaria non serva esclusivaente per incrementare l’export USA:
With the first phase of the post-financial crisis global economic bounce largely behind us, growth is becoming scarcer and countries are becoming more desperate – especially in developed countries with challenged exports and high unemployment. The United States, like other expansion challenged countries, fits this bill and is doing everything in its power to stem the tide by blasting foreigners’ currency policies in hopes of stimulating exports.

Political Hot Potato

The global race to devalue currencies in many ways is like a drug addict doing whatever it can to gain a short-term high. Sadly, the euphoric short-term benefit form lower exchange rates will be fleeting. Regardless, Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has openly indicated his willingness to become the economy’s drug dealer and “provide additional accommodation” in the form of quantitative easing part two (QE2).

Unfortunately, there is no long-term free lunch in global economics. The consequences of manipulating (depressing) exchange rates can lead to short-term artificial export growth, but eventually results convert to unwanted inflation. China too is like a crack dealer selling cheap imports as a drug to addicted buyers all over the world – ourselves included. We all love the $2.99 t-shirts and $5.99 toys made in China that we purchase at Wal-Mart (WMT), but don’t consciously realize the indirect cost of these cheap goods – primarily the export of manufacturing jobs overseas.

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Scritto il 11 ottobre 2010 at 17:30

TME = + 1,72%
Nessun commento.

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