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Anteprima Euro Stress Test e risultati
Scritto il 23 Luglio 2010 alle 11:31 da
Stress test banche europee. E’ giunta l’ora.
Dopo tanto vociferare, dopo tante parole, dopo tante indiscrezioni finalmente ci verranno forniti i dati su questo benedetto, tanto atteso e politicizzato stress test sulle banche europee, generato dal CEBS (Committee of European Banking Supervisors)
Cosa aspettarsi?
Personalmente mi aspetto dei risultati assolutamente non negativi, con qualche banca rimandata, in particolare le banche greche e irlandesi, qualche banca spagnola “border line” più qualche rimandato. Ma nulla di preoccupante. Solite voci su Hypo Real Estate, che probabilmente farà ricorso alla creazione di una bad bank tanto per nascondere e rimescolare le carte, e poi forse anche la slovena Nlb. Ed è quello che si aspetta il mercato. La fiducia espressa dai listini azionari sul buon esito dei 92 ex 21 Euro stress test (di cui 5 italiane: Unicredit, Intesa SanPaolo, UBI, MPS e Bco Popolare) ne è la prova.
Ma ecco vi qui di fila gli ultimi rumors sull’argomento con AGGIORNAMENTI progressivi. Prima però permettetemi un piccolo flash.
Utilizzando la piattaforma Bloomberg, ho provato a stilare un elenco dove ho riportato l’attuale stato ufficiale delle più importanti banche europee. Consideratelo pure uno Euro stress test ufficiosa ma che, presumo, non disti molto dai risultati finali di oggi pomeriggio.
Euro Stress Test: scheda ufficiosa
Da questa scheda risulta evidente lo stato di salute (Apparente o reale???) delle banche europee a livello di Tier1. Purtroppo mancano i dati di diversi istituti, ma sulla carta, Unicredit e Intesa SanPaolo sono fuori da qualsiasi rischio di liquidità.
Ovviamente oggi pomeriggio avremo conferme oppure sorprese.
AREA FLASH NEWS
Eccovi una carrellata delle ultime news-rumors sugli stress test europei.
July 23 (Bloomberg) — All of Germany’s Landesbanken have passed a European regulatory stress test on banks, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported, without saying where it got the information.
Some banks received results of the Committee of European Banking Supervisors’s test yesterday afternoon, the German newspaper said.
July 23 (Bloomberg) — The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, or Finma, is planning to release the results of its banking stress test today, the Financial Times reported, citing unidentified people familiar with Finma’s plans.
The test is expected to pass UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group AG, the newspaper said. Finma declined to comment on the publishing of its test results, the FT said.
July 23 (Bloomberg) — Several Spanish savings banks that have participated in mergers and received money from Spain’s bank rescue fund may fail stress tests, El Pais reported, citing unidentified people in financial markets.
The banks may need additional capital if the economy worsens significantly, the newspaper added.
STRESS TESTS: The Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) is widely due to publish results of its bank stress tests Friday around 1600GMT/1200EDT. Press conference is scheduled at 1800 GMT. The tests will be conducted on 91 banks, which is around 65% of the EU banking sector and banks are widely expected to publish estimate Tier 1 capital ratios under
1) a benchmark for 2011,
2) an adverse scenario and
3) a test that includes as “sovereign shock.”
Reports in press so far suggest most banks will pass the tests, with focus on the German Landesbanken, the Spanish Cajas, Greek and Irish banks, where these groups are expected to require additional capital. However, restructuring and recapitalisation are in place, i.e. the SoFFin in Germany, the FROB in Spain and the Greek Financial Stability Fund in Greece. There also seems to be mixed reports whether the Cajas will pass the stress test, with MinFin Salgado recently saying that all Spanish institutions have passed the test. However, the assumption here is that the Bank of Spain has allowed banks to count funding from its FROB as tier 1 capital.
July 23 (Bloomberg) — Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d., Slovenia’s biggest bank, is likely to fail the European Union’s bank stress test, the Guardian reported today, citing Prime Minister Borut Pahor.
The bank is the only Slovenian lender being tested, the paper said.
Pahor said the government “will guarantee the stability of the banks in case the international situation changes,” according to the London-based newspaper.
July 23 (Bloomberg) – Regulators are scrutinizing banks to assess if they have enough capital, defined as a Tier 1 capital ratio of at least 6 percent, to withstand a recession and sovereign debt crisis, according to a document from the Committee of European Banking Supervisors. Lenders that fail the trials will be made to raise additional capital. The results will be published by CEBS and national regulators starting at 6 p.m. Brussels time today.
July 23 (Bloomberg) — Banco Sabadell SA will pass its stress test “for sure,” Chairman Josep Oliu said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television. The tests have been strict enough and they will make it easier for banks like Sabadell to access financing, he said.
July 23 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank Executive Board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo said the stress tests being conducted on European banks include “very unlikely” scenarios and are as demanding as similar tests in the U.S.
The stress tests include scenarios “very unlikely but that cant be ruled out,” Gonzalez-Paramo said today in a speech in San Sebastian, Spain. The tests are important for transparency, he said.
Regulators are scrutinizing banks to assess if they have enough capital to withstand a recession and sovereign-debt crisis, according to a document from the Committee of European Banking Supervisors. The results will be published by CEBS and national regulators starting at 6 p.m. Brussels time today.
“As the IMF has said, these tests are in no way less demanding than those carried out in the U.S. a year ago, and the contrary may even be the case,” Gonzalez-Paramo said.
July 23 (Telegraph) — Ten out of the 91 banks subjected to Europe’s stress tests are expected to fail, according to a survey of investors conducted by Goldman Sachs.
July 23 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank Executive Board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo said “NO DOUBT IMPACT OF STRESS TESTS WILL BE POSITIVE” (Ma allora… tutto deciso a tavolino… che farsa…)
ANSA – ROMA – Sono “parecchie” le banche spagnole che hanno fallito gli stress test, la cui pubblicazione è attesa per questa sera: è quanto riporta oggi il quotidiano spagnolo El Pais, citando fonti finanziarie. Secondo El Pais, sulle 18 banche spagnole prese in considerazione dai test di resistenza alle crisi, “un piccolo gruppo avrebbe bisogno di maggior capitale se le condizioni economiche peggiorassero significativamente e se si verificasse una crisi del debito sovrano in diversi Paesi”.
July 23 (Bloomberg) — The euro climbed against the dollar, erasing declines, as an unexpected surge in German business confidence this month outweighed concern that some European banks may fail stress tests today.
July 23 (Bloomberg) — Guillermo de la Dehesa Romero, chairman of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, talks about the prospects for Spanish banks passing the European stress
tests that are due to be published today.De la Dehesa Says Some Spanish Cajas May Fail Tests.
COMMENTO IMPORTANTE del sottoscritto agli Euro Stress Test.
July 23 (Bloomberg) — The 91 banks being stress-tested were only examined on European sovereign debt losses for the bonds they trade, rather than those they hold to maturity, according to a draft European Central Bank document. “The haircuts are applied to the trading book portfolios only, as no default assumption was considered,” according to a confidential document dated July 22 and titled “EU Stress Test Exercise: Key Messages on Methodological Issues.” The tests will assume a loss of 23.1 percent on Greek debt, 14 percent of Portuguese bonds, 12.3 percent on Spanish debt, and 4.7 percent on German state debt, according to the document obtained by Bloomberg News. U.K. government bonds will be subject to a 10 percent haircut, and France 5.9 percent.
The tests assume the weighted average yield on euro-area five-year government bonds will rise to 4.6 percent in 2011 from 2.7 percent at the end of 2009. The tests also include an increase in the yield on five-year Greek government bonds to as much as 13.9 percent after “interest rate shocks,” the document shows.
CEBS deputy secretary general Patrick Amis declined to comment on the document, referring questions to the ECB. The ECB declined to comment. CEBS is scheduled to release the criteria and the test results from 5 p.m. London time today.
STRESS TESTS: (corrects earlier bullet about press conference time).The Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) will publish results of its bank stress tests Friday around 1600GMT/1200EDT. Press conference is scheduled at 1700GMT/1300EDT. (quindi Euro Stress TEst pubblicati alle ore 18 italiae e conferenza stampa alle h 19 italiane).
Hypo Real Estate Fails as 13 German Banks Pass EU Stress Test
Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, the commercial-property lender rescued by the government following the financial crisis, was the only German bank to fail a European Union-wide stress test.
Hypo Real Estate’s Tier 1 capital ratio, a measure of financial strength, dropped to 4.7 percent in a scenario that simulated a sovereign-debt crisis and economic recession in the test, below the 6 percent minimum required, the Bundesbank and Germany’s financial regulator, BaFin, said in a joint statement.
“An immediate need for capital would arise only if the hypothetical stress scenario actually did materialize,” they said. The Munich-based lender “complied with the regulatory minimum tier 1 capital ratio,” which has been set at 4 percent, “even in the most severe stress scenario,” according to the statement.
EU regulators have carried out the region’s first orchestrated stress tests as they seek to reassure investors about the firms’ resilience to potential losses amid a crisis that has pummeled the bonds of countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal. The tests, coordinated by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors, assessed 91 of Europe’s biggest banks, including 14 German firms.
“Had Hypo Real Estate not failed the test, this would have meant the stress tests would have been a real joke,” said Dirk Becker, a Frankfurt-based analyst at Kepler Capital Markets. “The bank is under reconstruction anyway and will be recapitalized by the German government, so this doesn’t really matter for the market.”
Deutsche Bank AG, Commerzbank AG and Deutsche Postbank AG, Germany’s biggest publicly traded banks, all passed the test. Deutsche Bank’s Tier 1 capital ratio dropped to 9.7 percent in the most severe scenario, while Commerzbank’s and Postbank’s fell to 9.1 percent and 6.6 percent respectively.
The following table shows the results of all German banks that were tested, as published by BaFin and the Bundesbank.
Greece’s ATEbank says fails stress test
(Reuters) – Greece’s state-controlled ATEbank failed the European Union stress test, the bank said on Friday.
Under the most adverse scenario, with sovereign shock, it would have a Tier 1 ratio of 4.36 percent. Its shortfall under this scenario would amount to 242.6 million euros (202.2 million pounds).“The Bank will proceed to a capital increase to cover future capital adequacy needs,” it said in a statement.
French banks pass stress test
(Reuters) – France’s top four banks passed the European banking stress test with an average Tier 1 ratio of 9.3 percent in 2011 under a worst-case scenario, compared with 9.9 percent at the end of 2009, the Bank of France said on Friday.
Banks needed a Tier I ratio of at least 6 percent to pass the test, which assumed a double-dip recession as well as write-downs on sovereign debt held in trading books.
The banks tested were BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BPCE, the parent of investment bank Natixis.
Bank of France governor and European Central Bank Governing Council member Christian Noyer said the outcome was “satisfying, not a surprise and totally comfortable.” The European tests were “heavier and more ambitious” than similar U.S. tests, he added.
The four French banks have total sovereign debt exposure to 30 European countries of 42.9 billion euros (35.8 billion pounds) in their trading books.
Portuguese banks pass stress test – Bank of Portugal
(Reuters) – All of Portugal’s banks that faced stress tests carried out by European authorities have passed, the Bank of Portugal said on Friday.
The financial institutions tested in Portugal are Millennium bcp, Banco BPI, Espirito Santo Financial Group — the holding company of Banco Esprito Santo — and state-owned Caixa Geral de Depositos. “The four Portuguese banking groups showed a high level of resistance in the case of the adverse scenario,” the bank said in a statement. “This means that no measures of recapitalisation are necessary for Portuguese banks.”
The four banks had been expected to pass after government officials said in recents weeks they were confident of the solidity of Portugal’s banking system. Overall, the test covered 74 percent of all assets in Portugal’s banking system, the central bank said.
Portugal has been hit hard by the euro zone debt crisis and its banks have struggled to raise financing in capital markets in recent months.
However, because there are no regional banks like in neighbouring Spain and due to the fact that there was no housing bubble in Portugal, its banks are in relatively solid shape.
Spain’s Cajasur fails stress tests
(Reuters) – Spain’s Cajasur savings bank failed European bank stress tests according to results published on Friday.The bank had a Tier 1 ratio of 4.3 percent and needed additional capital of 208 million euros (173.5 million pounds).
ECCOVI IL LINK PER SEGUIRE LIVE I RISULTATI DELLO STRESS TEST
Instant view – Seven banks fail European stress tests
(Reuters) – Seven of 91 European banks have failed stress tests and show an overall capital shortfall of 3.5 billion euros, the organisers of the tests said on Friday.
Le cinque banche italiane promosse dagli stress test. In Europa sette bocciate su 91
L’Italia supera con successo gli stress test. UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Ubi banca, Banco popolare e Mps – ovvero i cinque istituti di credito italiani fra i 91 complessivi in Europa sottoposti all’esame di bilancio dell’Ue – non hanno bisogno di rafforzare il patrimonio perché sono in grado di fronteggiare un peggioramento dell’economia, nello scenario negativo prospettato dal Cebs, il Committee of european banking supervisors, che in sinergia con la Banca centrale europea e le singola autorità di vigilanza nazionale, ha condotto i “crush test”. Lo scenario pessimistico, sul fronte macroeconomico, definisce un’ipotesi teorica di douple dip. Viene ipotizzato che, nel biennio 2009/2010 e 2010/2011, il Pil europeo cresca del 3% in meno rispetto alle attuali stime.
Dai risultati è emerso che il tier 1 (il rapporto tra capitali propri e attività totali) dei cinque istituti italiani sotto esame resterebbe sopra il 6%, la soglia minima stabilita per il superamento del test, anche al verificarsi della condizione recessiva prospettata.
I risultati. Nel dettaglio, nello scenario peggiore prospettato al 2011 il tier 1 di UniCredit sarebbe si attesterebbe al 7,8%, quello di Intesa Sanpaolo al 8,2%, Banco popolare al 7%, Ubi banca al 6,8% e Mps al 6,2 per cento.
In Europa sette istituti bocciati. Non hanno superato lo stress test (e quindi dovranno rafforzare il patrimonio) sette istituti europei. Tra questi, come previso la tedesca Hypo Real Estate che, nello scenario peggiore, vedrebbe scendere il tier 1 al 4,7 per cento. Lo ha riferito la Bundesbank, che ha comunicato che, invece, le altre13 banche tedesche hanno regolarmente superato l’esame. È stata bocciata anche la greca Ate Bbank. (Fonte :IlSole24Ore)
STAY TUNED!
DT
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