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SENZA RITEGNO: RENDIMENTI ai MINIMI ma il peggio potrebbe ancora venire
Scritto il 18 Marzo 2016 alle 14:30 da
“…e non è finita qui!”
Quando il mitico Corrado Mantoni presentava la “Corrida”, prima degli stacchi pubblicitari, chiudeva il collegamento con questa frase di commiato. Un modo come un altro per non far scemare l’interesse del pubblico televisivo, mantenendo alta la tensione.
Per certi versi è anche quello che sta succedendo con la BCE. Sia Draghi nelle scorse giornate e sia altri personaggio di spicco dell’Eurotower, tipo ad esempio il capo economista Peter Praet, averto no i mercati: “abbiamo fatto tanto ma…non è finita qui. Possiamo anche andare oltre”.
“Abbiamo detto chiaramente che i tassi resteranno “bassi, o più bassi” per un periodo esteso”. (…) “Come hanno dimostrato le altre Banche centrali, non abbiamo raggiunto il limite più basso. Se nuovi shock negativi dovessero peggiorare lo scenario economico, un taglio dei tassi resta tra le nostre armi”. (Rep)
Questa è solo una parte dell’interessante intervista e dell’articolo scritto da Mastrobuoni e Giugliano , che vi consiglio perché ricco di spunti interessanti. Quindi andiamoci cauti nel dire che abbiamo toccato i picchi minimi nell’inesplorato mondo dei tassi negativi. Capite quindi che molti stanno facendo il conto senza l’oste. BCE con tassi che non scenderanno più? Mai dire mai. FED con tassi che saliranno meno del previsto a dicembre? Mai dire mai. Quindi Dollaro USA che resterà debole contro Euro? Mai dire mai. Il clima che si sta sentendo sui mercati torna ad essere quello della “Currency War”, ovvero della guerra valutaria.
E se la BCE lancia la sfida, e la FED si adegua, ecco che la BOJ risponde.
(Bloomberg) — Japan’s 10-year bond yield dropped to a record minus 0.135 percent Friday, falling below the the negative deposit rate introduced by the Bank of Japan last month, after the central bank’s operation to buy long-term debt met the lowest investor participation on record. Yields on government debt have tumbled since the BOJ announced Jan. 29 that it would start charging 0.1 percent interest on some deposits held at the bank starting Feb. 16.
Il grande rischio è che questa diventi la “Guerra tra i poveri”. Se tutte le banche centrali intervengono , tendono a neutralizzarsi a vicenda.
Risultato: zero a zero, palla in centro. Ma ad un costo non indifferente. La maggior parte delle economie, degli stati e delle banche centrali stanno spingendo i tassi a livelli mai visti. Una politica che, come già detto in passato, passa addirittura da ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Protocol) a NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Protocol).
Durante la notte lo yen è salito ai massimi rispetto al dollaro americano da ottobre 2014 scambiando a 110.93 dollari per nelle prime ore di negoziazione in Asia.
Sempre sul fronte valutario, la Banca centrale cinese ha guidato lo yuan onshore, scambiato in maniera controllata all’interno del Paese, in rialzo dello 0,5% sul dollaro statunitense, ai massimi dallo scorso 16 dicembre. La mossa riflette però la generale debolezza del dollaro dopo che la Federal Reserve ha detto di essere più cauta nel programma di rialzo dei tassi previsto per quest’anno. Lo yuan ora scambia a 6,4645 contro la sua ultima chiusura ufficiale di 6,4930 contro il biglietto verde. (MF)
Bond 10yr: the new normal
In questi due grafici ho provato a mettere a confronto il rendimento di bond 10yr. Due slide dove nella prima ho inserito i paesi più solidi (in parte sono con rendimenti a 10 anni nominalmente NEGATIVI!!!) e nella seconda i PIIGS. Signori, il rapporto rischio /rendimento non esiste più. O meglio esiste sempre ma è falsato dalla “polizza assicurativa” marchiata BCE che con il suo TLTRO e il suo QQE drogo il mercato.
La cosa grave, però, è dire che non è possibile certificare questi minimi come minimi assoluti. Dove andremo a finire? Questo non lo so, o meglio non lo sa nessuno. Ma non sorprendiamoci più di nulla. Tutto può succedere.
Riproduzione riservata
STAY TUNED!
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Segui @intermarketblog
4 commenti Commenta
jesselivermore
Scritto il 19 Marzo 2016 at 11:25
The Austrian School of Economics
It consists of 3 major components.
1.Sound money and private property
2.Free market capitalism
3.Human behavior
The cycle we are going through now has happened hundreds of times in history and has led to the rise and falls of empires. It’s because of people forgetting the past and repeating the same mistakes. If you don’t have sound money, you really don’t have protection against the government. They can confiscate your money and they have been doing so since Bretton Woods.
“The money that we hold in banks is a worthless junk bond. The government has essentially become the mafia; they are scheming and transferring property to themselves.”
Sound Money
The figure below outlines the specific functions of money:
Gold
If it doesn’t have these components then you’re not holding money. Until 1971 it had all those features, and it has been replaced with an I.O.U of fiscally and morally bankrupt politicians and banks. It is worth no more than the paper it is printed on.
“In my opinion, the gold and silver bear market is over so it is a prime time to start accumulating now.”
Market Capitalism and Wealth Creation
Capitalism is about getting more for less and three groups of people being rewarded for it: The consumer because he is able to give his family a better life, the company which supplied it, and the employees within the company.
Socialism eats everything. Real wealth and income creation are in freefall. There will be no recovering. The confiscation of wealth is also known as runaway regulations, runaway debt creation, more taxes and currency debasement.
“Its pure confiscation, cannibalism, and slavery. It is eating the golden goose. It’s the people that aren’t self-reliant and don’t produce anything eating those that do.”
It’s pure confiscation, cannibalism, and slavery. It is eating the golden goose. It’s the people that aren’t self-reliant and don’t produce anything eating those that do. Nobody owns their homes, it’s simply a record that’s held in a database and all they have to do is misplace it. Nobody owns their stocks in their name and if you look at your banking agreement you don’t even have title to your money, the bank does. Slowly but surely they have removed everything. They don’t let you hold money because they can’t steal from it; real money has been outlawed.
“Gold is the currency of kings, silver is the currency of merchants, and debt is the currency of slaves.”
Currency Extinction Event
von Mises quote
GDP is nothing of the sort, it’s just debt disguised as GDP. It is spending future wealth rather than creating future wealth for proper allocation to productive enterprises.
This is the failure of socialism…
“We have nothing; we are just a bunch of debt slaves living in an illusion until we wake up.”
The Events of 1971
President Nixon changed from a reserve backed system where the dollar was semi redeemable in gold and silver to a system that has no backing.
“It was the greatest heist in history. It was the greatest transfer of wealth from the public to the ‘bankseters’.”
He did this so that he wouldn’t have to operate in a prudent manner. Prudent manner means have to pass laws and have taxes which gives people a reason to get up in the morning and have the ability to do the capitalism which was discussed earlier. When you have bad laws and bad regulations, the economy will either collapse or they have to print the money to fill the whole; unfortunately they chose the latter.
Thomas Jefferson quote
“History has shown what happens to people who try to fix this system.”
Kennedy was taking the central bank back and creating silver backed money, 90 days later he was dead. Of course we will never truly know, everything is so covered up now and the government is incapable of telling the truth.
The Indirect Exchange
“This is how you go through a currency and financial extinction event. Exchange something of uncertain value, fiat money, for something of certain value, real wealth. This is the indirect exchange in simplest terms.”
So much of the ‘financialization’ of the economy is an illusion because it is not the real things going up; it’s the paper that they’re priced in losing its purchasing power
“The greatest applied Austrian economist in the world is none other than Warren Buffet.”
What Warren does is he sells paper which means liabilities are being debased by central bank’s printing presses and credit creation. If he writes an insurance policy for someone for $10 million, he now has a liability of 10 million, if he did this in 2000 that liability may be 5 million and simultaneously he took that money and bought the Burlington Northern Railroad, which is something that will just reprice to reflect the lower purchasing power it is denominated in. If we are in a depression or a boom, regardless the railroads will run. Half of his great track record is inflation that isn’t properly disclosed. He has been doing this since, coincidently 1971. He has been selling paper and buying real things with cash flow ever since.
Gold doesn’t cash flow but it is about to. Because of negative interest rates you’re paying somebody to borrow money from you. If you are able to hold your money without having to pay someone to hold it.The gold and silver bear market is over. As these destructive negative interest rates go deeper and deeper, people will eventually wake up. They’ve already woken up, this is what’s going on with the presidential race and particularly Donald Trump.
“This is the greatest insanity ever. It will be studied and written about for centuries. It is a much bigger example of stupidity and failing to learn the lessons of history. It is much larger in scale than the Great Depression because of the nature of globalization and the nature of man.”
kry
Scritto il 21 Marzo 2016 at 00:41
jesselivermore@finanza,
Grazie.
Per quelli che come me si adattano a google traduttore
http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2016/03/18/ty-andros/
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Corrado Mantoni, 🙂