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TRENDS: Intermarket e Macroeconomia (96)
Scritto il 15 Dicembre 2010 alle 21:10 da
Trends – Analisi tecnica intermarket e macroeconomia – nr. 96
ATTENZIONE: AGGIORNATO ANCHE THE TRENDER !!!
Buonasera a tutti!
Il mercato si muove quasi stancamente verso il Santo Natale. Tutto sembra tranquillo e piatto. Ma sarà veramente così?
In questo numero di TRENDS vi farò vedere che l’analisi intermarket sta dando delle indicazioni diverse.
TRENDS, per chi non la conoscesse ancora, è una rubrica che viene redatta e registrata ogni settimana dal sottoscritto. Vengono analizzati i mercati finanziari e alcuni indicatori macroeconomici sia singolarmente, uno ad uno, e sia analizzando correlazioni e divergenze. Inoltre vengono studiati scenari, anomalie e particolarità dei mercati tramite l’analisi di grafici e di fondamentali.
Questa rubrica, che fa parte del pacchetto Compass, è in linea di massima dedicata agli amici del blog e a chi sostiene l’iniziativa con una donazione.
Temi approfonditi:
-
- Comportamento del Dollaro USA
- Credit default swap: situazione PIGS
- Credit default swap: situazione Italia e analisi curva CDS
- Spread Bund BTP
- CDS banche
- Spread CDS stati-corporate
- Correlazioni tra commodity, azioni, Dollaro USA
- Lo spread 10-2 Euro
- Intermarket e rischio di mercato
- Analisi intermarket finale con valutazioni per i mercati finanziari
TRENDS è visibile agli amici del blog nella pagina dedicata
ATTENZIONE: AGGIORNATO ANCHE THE TRENDER !!!
STAY TUNED!
DT
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Grafici e dati elaborati da Intermarket&more sulla database Bloomberg
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5 commenti Commenta
50 cent
Scritto il 16 Dicembre 2010 at 16:13
Grazie, stavolta sono spiazzato.
Chi comanda? Trends o The Trender?
Mi sembra strano perchè The Trender è solitamente prudente e senza azzardi e non mi spiego questa “variante anomala”.
Spero di non aver svelato troppi segreti 
Scritto il 16 Dicembre 2010 at 16:36
Ma no dai, tranquillo!
Trender semplicemente applica quanto detto in TRENDS , se ci pensi… L’aggressività però è assolutamente limitata dal rigoroso stop loss. 😉
E se hai notato, questa volta non si parla di SPY ma di altre cose in Trender…
paolo41
Scritto il 16 Dicembre 2010 at 17:31
…comunque la seduta di oggi non fa testo e anche quella di domani dove ci sono…quattro streghe….
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Scusa l’OT ma questa notizia apre nuovi scenari…. come capirete la crisi finanziaria potrebbe essersi rivelata una bufala solo usata per spremerci ulteriormente…. aiuto!:
Britain’s unprecedented bailout of the banks is unlikely to cost the taxpayer a penny, the Government’s spending watchdog will say for the first time today.
The National Audit Office (NAO), which scrutinises public spending on behalf of Parliament, will say that while the bailout committed almost £1trillion of public money to the banking system, the “most likely scenario” was that taxpayers would, in the end, break even.
The assessment is in stark contrast to the Treasury’s original estimate that the total cost of banking support through the Asset Protection, Special Liquidity and Credit Guarantee schemes would be up to £50bn.
Though that estimate has since been revised down, the NAO report today is the first from a Government agency predicting no loss at all.
Amyas Morse, head of the NAO, said: “We concluded in 2009 that thesupport provided to the banks was justified, but that the final cost to the taxpayer would not be known for a number of years. A year on and we have more information. The most likely scenario is that the taxpayer will not pay out on the guarantees.”
The report covers the Government billions pumped in to salvage Northern Rock, Bradford & Bingley and Alliance & Leicester, as well as support to a string of other British banking groups. The scale of government support currently backing up the banks has fallen from a peak of £955bn to £512bn at the beginning of December. This has come as some of the support mechanisms have been closed to new entrants, while some of the guaranteed debts and assets in the schemes have matured and been repaid.
The report added that the cash borrowed by the state expressly to support the UK banks has risen by £7bn in the past 12 months to £124bn.
The NAO also cautioned against complacency, saying that further shocks to the banking system – such as the collapse of a UK bank – “could still lead to significant losses for the taxpayer”.
While the banks seem to have come through 2010 relatively unscathed, ongoing fears over the economy and the threats associated with the sovereign debt crisis threatening to sweep Europe, optimism should be tempered, according to Mr Morse.
He said there should be a “realisation that the risk of further shocks to the financial markets and of significant loss to the taxpayer has not gone away.” The watchdog added that the Treasury “will probably be paying for the support it has provided to UK banks for years to come”. The support was always planned to be temporary, but as the NAO pointed out, winding the mechanisms down will be challenging. The Government “will be committed to at least some of its guarantees, loans and share investments for years”.
The eventual return to the taxpayers following the Treasury’s support of the high street banks will alsodepend on the price at which it sells its sizeable stakes in Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group. The Government currently owns 83 per cent of RBS and 41 per cent of Lloyds. The paper loss on these positions is currently around £12.5bn.
The cost of the loans and fees to the Government related to supporting the banks is currently running at £5bn a year in interest, 11 per cent of the total interest to be paid on public sector debt between 2010 and 2011. So far this has been offset by fees and interest paid to the Treasury by the supporting banks, although the report added “these are likely to fall in future”. The Government does not see this as a loss to the tax payer as they are “not direct costs”.
The bail-out in numbers
955bn The total commitment in pounds made by taxpayers to the British banking system.
83 per cent The taxpayer’s stake in Royal Bank of Scotland, which it may eventually be able to sell at a profit.
41 per cent The taxpayer’s stake in Lloyds Banking Group, which will also be sold when market conditions are right.