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Short Interest e Insider Trading

Scritto il 15 Aprile 2010 alle 11:39 da Danilo DT

Oramai siamo ad un passo dal target. Sembrava impossibile, ed invece no. Perentoriamente, pian pianino, il mercato azionario si è mosso al rialzo e, bruciando le tappe, incurante dell’ipercomprato e delle vicissitudini macro sul debito, ormai si trova ad un tiro di schioppo da quel livello posto a 61.8% di Fibonacci.
I volumi si mantengono comunque sempre elevati anche se in leggera diminuzione. Occorre però notare che i cosiddetto Short Interest sono ormai ad un passo dal top. Ed inoltre, non possiamo certo sottovalutare il fatto che le cosiddette “mani forti” e ben informate si stanno muovendo. Ma non in acquisto. Bensì in vendita. Il sito MarketWatch http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-insiders-pick-up-their-selling-2010-04-14 ce ne dà testimonianza.

Last week, according to the latest issue of Vickers’ service, insiders on balance sold 4.96 shares of their companies’ stock for every one that they bought.
That’s more than double the ratio for the week in early February when the stock market hit its low for the correction, when it stood at 1.96 to 1. In fact, the recent ratio is quite close to the 5.15-to-1 ratio that prevailed in the week in which the stock market hit its January high — just before the correction commenced.
To be sure, there is a lot of volatility to the weekly ratios, especially when the overall volume of insider transactions is relatively light — as indeed they have been lately. This is one of the reasons that Vickers also calculates an eight-week average of their sell-to-buy ratio. It currently stands at 4.18-to-1.
Quindi risulta chiaro che l’insider trading si sta spostando verso una chiara posizione bearish. E sempre in ambito di analisi bearish oggi vi presento un interessante report.

Vi propongo un documento che ritengo valido per capire dove va e come si comporta lo short interest. Vi presento, alla data del 31 marzo, le 100 posizioni più importanti shortate sul NYSE, i 50 maggiori cambiamenti di short interest sempre sul NYSE (le società con volumi maggiori) sia la rialzo che al ribasso. Accompagnate dal grafico che ne testimonia l’andamento medio a livello volumetrico.
Credo che sia un documento esclusivo che vi farà capire come si sta evolvendo il mercato azionario.

TOP of the short interest

Ticker Avg. Daily

Symbol Company March 31 March 15 Volume

=============================================================================

C CITIGROUP INC 523,504,424 552,413,116 596,836,756

SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF 232,808,624 251,896,674 183,621,927

IWM ISHARES-RUS 2000 195,796,980 224,275,657 57,952,974

F FORD MOTOR CO 182,004,206 191,090,805 167,680,593

S SPRINT NEXTEL CO 133,208,815 138,115,420 62,447,655

FNM FANNIE MAE 122,836,168 114,631,965 22,514,095

Q QWEST COMMUNICAT 121,988,373 95,616,645 33,321,021

XLF SPDR-FINL SELECT 121,753,861 135,556,937 83,368,406

BAC BANK OF AMERICA 92,990,045 105,490,138 167,275,258

XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP 86,216,436 82,565,605 27,430,760

AA ALCOA INC 86,116,626 80,189,371 37,435,659

EEM ISHARES-EMG MKT 80,302,047 69,718,561 62,237,687

NOK NOKIA CORP-ADR 76,968,561 79,521,437 18,628,911

RF REGIONS FINANCIA 75,117,710 73,802,029 23,061,211

MGM MGM MIRAGE 73,600,426 78,363,366 26,136,070

IYR ISHARES-DJ REAL 73,167,494 87,552,945 14,023,167

XRT SPDR S&P RETAIL 71,677,308 80,799,666 12,343,735

GE GENERAL ELECTRIC 70,081,135 64,508,199 105,626,893

FRE FREDDIE MAC 67,341,025 73,995,584 10,496,381

MO ALTRIA GROUP INC 64,905,754 68,821,302 13,914,494

ABK AMBAC FINL GROUP 60,395,046 54,472,362 20,978,908

WFC WELLS FARGO & CO 60,116,195 55,339,341 35,780,449

DIS WALT DISNEY CO 58,297,071 50,583,705 14,018,830

SNV SYNOVUS FINL 56,084,448 55,061,726 19,199,113

EK EASTMAN KODAK 52,252,275 51,596,724 6,597,090

FXI ISHARES FT/XI CH 52,172,749 46,297,916 26,477,301

MOT MOTOROLA INC 51,639,572 50,782,198 20,656,960

KEY KEYCORP 50,083,122 44,017,317 15,967,643

HST HOST HOTELS & RE 49,962,302 47,929,201 10,578,719

VZ VERIZON COMMUNIC 48,352,298 38,711,620 17,994,665

SLB SCHLUMBERGER LTD 48,051,597 44,277,354 12,443,704

T AT&T INC 47,295,552 45,409,105 25,263,869

LVS LAS VEGAS SANDS 45,917,095 48,897,246 42,031,554

SCHW SCHWAB (CHARLES) 45,383,310 49,780,977 11,128,625

BMY BRISTOL-MYER SQB 45,293,233 39,013,228 13,102,086

VALE VALE SA-SP ADR 45,264,749 46,490,325 27,418,080

SKS SAKS INC 45,189,320 45,695,914 4,877,129

PFE PFIZER INC 44,540,816 42,684,923 62,080,057

FTR FRONTIER COMMUNI 42,447,933 41,666,525 4,543,150

KFT KRAFT FOODS INC 42,335,982 41,923,062 14,081,908

EFA ISHARES-MSCI EAF 41,231,558 40,653,244 17,771,204

USB US BANCORP 40,065,879 45,475,557 9,805,574

HD HOME DEPOT INC 39,783,711 39,321,802 13,078,438

SD SANDRIDGE ENERGY 39,647,104 34,318,641 6,684,858

EMC EMC CORP/MASS 39,378,045 40,836,332 22,120,519

HL HECLA MINING CO 38,782,810 34,576,415 10,383,397

SLE SARA LEE CORP 38,715,819 45,295,411 8,092,269

KRE SPDR KBW REGIONA 38,008,007 42,303,461 2,613,801

AMD ADV MICRO DEVICE 37,624,587 44,545,118 15,367,207

BHI BAKER HUGHES INC 37,231,406 34,501,531 6,514,257

CHK CHESAPEAKE ENERG 35,695,976 36,922,247 24,521,229

CX CEMEX SAB-SP ADR 34,655,162 23,542,802 12,284,063

AIG AMERICAN INTERNA 34,617,181 34,958,226 15,891,604

STI SUNTRUST BANKS 34,458,160 38,844,800 6,470,879

PLD PROLOGIS 33,397,471 34,909,172 7,212,443

CMS CMS ENERGY CORP 33,332,446 33,849,744 2,387,791

WM WASTE MANAGEMENT 33,310,100 31,741,048 2,385,688

LCC US AIRWAYS GROUP 33,186,994 35,843,946 5,344,391

PHM PULTE GROUP INC 33,111,215 35,074,712 6,286,878

AMR AMR CORP 32,495,586 31,390,767 12,114,516

MAR MARRIOTT INTL-A 32,398,603 31,279,406 5,413,165

XLE SPDR-ENERGY SEL 32,083,466 32,700,675 19,361,680

LSI LSI CORP 32,060,072 29,684,351 15,717,645

GCI GANNETT CO 31,161,491 29,761,709 4,048,158

HOG HARLEY-DAVIDSON 30,907,807 34,834,898 4,524,571

ODP OFFICE DEPOT INC 30,703,570 30,956,823 4,920,664

PG PROCTER & GAMBLE 30,641,736 31,593,237 9,992,261

MCO MOODY’S CORP 30,581,757 30,865,666 2,276,639

NYB NY COMM BANCORP 30,550,158 33,454,314 4,404,230

JPM JPMORGAN CHASE 30,401,335 26,449,001 33,524,398

RCI ROGERS COMMUNI-B 30,172,360 28,054,632 441,527

MTG MGIC INVT CORP 29,979,718 29,461,597 6,945,551

HTZ HERTZ GLOBAL HOL 29,562,187 28,169,812 4,110,427

SMH SEMICONDUCTOR HL 29,505,123 34,938,212 12,936,531

LLY ELI LILLY & CO 28,802,348 27,059,142 7,036,106

NWL NEWELL RUBBERMAI 28,801,015 28,159,295 3,635,370

NLY ANNALY CAPITAL M 28,620,624 29,879,167 12,599,698

JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS 28,570,000 30,388,255 4,962,362

BRK/B BERKSHIRE HATH-B 27,885,605 34,945,317 4,920,187

TXT TEXTRON INC 27,690,247 26,168,984 3,690,837

MF MF GLOBAL HOLDIN 27,420,018 25,779,339 5,907,929

BBT BB&T CORP 27,174,397 22,951,301 6,027,745

M MACY’S INC 27,060,485 28,938,180 8,529,166

BSX BOSTON SCIENTIFC 26,558,805 23,130,252 53,517,826

FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN 26,433,998 27,178,591 12,900,746

XLB SPDR-MATERIALS 26,392,568 28,365,286 11,579,672

X US STEEL CORP 26,192,838 26,521,384 15,943,383

PM PHILIP MORRIS 26,120,163 25,401,593 7,161,544

TER TERADYNE INC 25,490,932 26,058,515 4,855,527

MWW MONSTER WORLDWID 25,390,641 24,922,011 1,976,557

IPG INTERPUBLIC GRP 25,256,754 23,837,316 5,232,075

DHI DR HORTON INC 25,243,522 26,519,830 4,780,077

CAT CATERPILLAR INC 25,000,740 28,110,233 8,683,311

GME GAMESTOP CORP-A 24,764,692 27,539,870 6,385,414

TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENT 24,692,468 24,784,842 12,958,819

BBD BRADESCO-ADR 24,652,947 22,889,901 9,880,140

ALU ALCATEL-LUCE-ADR 24,579,870 20,880,318 13,356,048

MBI MBIA INC 24,370,305 27,114,545 7,489,468

LIZ LIZ CLAIBORNE 23,958,367 25,362,695 2,123,958

RCL ROYAL CARIBBEAN 23,907,206 27,636,136 3,035,142

TOP on the change SHORT INTEREST

TOP 50 INCREASES

Ticker

Symbol Company March 31 March 15 Change

=============================================================================

Q QWEST COMMUNICAT 121,988,373 95,616,645 26,371,728

CX CEMEX SAB-SP ADR 34,655,162 23,542,802 11,112,360

EEM ISHARES-EMG MKT 80,302,047 69,718,561 10,583,486

VZ VERIZON COMMUNIC 48,352,298 38,711,620 9,640,678

FNM FANNIE MAE 122,836,168 114,631,965 8,204,203

DIS WALT DISNEY CO 58,297,071 50,583,705 7,713,366

BMY BRISTOL-MYER SQB 45,293,233 39,013,228 6,280,005

XOP SPDR OIL&GAS EXP 20,895,428 14,789,518 6,105,910

KEY KEYCORP 50,083,122 44,017,317 6,065,805

VWO VANGUARD EM MK E 16,277,763 10,251,882 6,025,881

AA ALCOA INC 86,116,626 80,189,371 5,927,255

ABK AMBAC FINL GROUP 60,395,046 54,472,362 5,922,684

VXX IPATH-S&P S/T FU 13,242,918 7,355,493 5,887,425

FXI ISHARES FT/XI CH 52,172,749 46,297,916 5,874,833

GE GENERAL ELECTRIC 70,081,135 64,508,199 5,572,936

SD SANDRIDGE ENERGY 39,647,104 34,318,641 5,328,463

WFR MEMC ELEC MATER 22,802,376 17,831,916 4,970,460

IYT ISHARES-DJ US TR 8,056,657 3,089,793 4,966,864

WFC WELLS FARGO & CO 60,116,195 55,339,341 4,776,854

AET AETNA INC 10,671,252 6,259,272 4,411,980

BBT BB&T CORP 27,174,397 22,951,301 4,223,096

HL HECLA MINING CO 38,782,810 34,576,415 4,206,395

XLV SPDR-HEALTH CARE 17,825,416 13,749,415 4,076,001

JPM JPMORGAN CHASE 30,401,335 26,449,001 3,952,334

EWJ ISHARES-JAPAN 17,706,623 13,847,772 3,858,851

UNG US NAT GAS FD LP 16,328,519 12,551,103 3,777,416

SLB SCHLUMBERGER LTD 48,051,597 44,277,354 3,774,243

ALU ALCATEL-LUCE-ADR 24,579,870 20,880,318 3,699,552

TSM TAIWAN SEMIC-ADR 19,556,411 15,870,049 3,686,362

XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP 86,216,436 82,565,605 3,650,831

WMB WILLIAMS COS INC 11,726,268 8,267,126 3,459,142

BSX BOSTON SCIENTIFC 26,558,805 23,130,252 3,428,553

LTD LTD BRANDS INC 19,456,053 16,033,272 3,422,781

FBR FIBRIA CELUL-ADR 12,300,706 8,949,919 3,350,787

PFG PRINCIPAL FINL 12,667,463 9,349,176 3,318,287

RWT REDWOOD TRUST 7,026,490 3,732,747 3,293,743

HK PETROHAWK ENERGY 18,253,454 14,975,943 3,277,511

DAL DELTA AIR LI 20,558,052 17,296,427 3,261,625

NI NISOURCE INC 10,606,034 7,577,106 3,028,928

BK BANK NY MELLON 17,902,581 14,909,979 2,992,602

PCG PG&E CORP 8,758,846 5,794,614 2,964,232

UPS UNITED PARCEL-B 14,938,503 12,049,103 2,889,400

FE FIRSTENERGY CORP 8,631,201 5,874,947 2,756,254

BHI BAKER HUGHES INC 37,231,406 34,501,531 2,729,875

VIA/B VIACOM INC-B 10,886,700 8,163,409 2,723,291

EEE EVERGREEN ENERGY 15,264,584 12,614,008 2,650,576

CVS CVS CAREMARK COR 16,750,217 14,203,929 2,546,288

TJX TJX COS INC 13,542,682 11,078,034 2,464,648

TOL TOLL BROTHERS 15,054,009 12,639,201 2,414,808

EXC EXELON CORP 12,372,453 9,960,035 2,412,418

TOP 50 DECREASES

Ticker

Symbol Company March 31 March 15 Change

=============================================================================

C CITIGROUP INC 523,504,424 552,413,116 -28,908,692

IWM ISHARES-RUS 2000 195,796,980 224,275,657 -28,478,677

SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF 232,808,624 251,896,674 -19,088,050

DNR DENBURY RESOURCE 18,384,666 36,397,645 -18,012,979

IYR ISHARES-DJ REAL 73,167,494 87,552,945 -14,385,451

XLF SPDR-FINL SELECT 121,753,861 135,556,937 -13,803,076

BAC BANK OF AMERICA 92,990,045 105,490,138 -12,500,093

SWK STANLEY BLACK & 4,609,175 16,801,306 -12,192,131

XRT SPDR S&P RETAIL 71,677,308 80,799,666 -9,122,358

F FORD MOTOR CO 182,004,206 191,090,805 -9,086,599

XRX XEROX CORP 10,752,585 18,449,452 -7,696,867

RAD RITE AID CORP 20,625,913 28,280,705 -7,654,792

BRK/B BERKSHIRE HATH-B 27,885,605 34,945,317 -7,059,712

AMD ADV MICRO DEVICE 37,624,587 44,545,118 -6,920,531

FRE FREDDIE MAC 67,341,025 73,995,584 -6,654,559

SLE SARA LEE CORP 38,715,819 45,295,411 -6,579,592

RY ROYAL BK CANADA 16,200,273 22,497,359 -6,297,086

CVE CENOVUS ENERGY 5,721,273 11,376,903 -5,655,630

EWH ISHARES-HONGKONG 6,134,680 11,759,094 -5,624,414

SMH SEMICONDUCTOR HL 29,505,123 34,938,212 -5,433,089

UMC UNITED MICRO-ADR 20,676,391 26,090,903 -5,414,512

USB US BANCORP 40,065,879 45,475,557 -5,409,678

V VISA INC-CLASS A 14,285,777 19,247,215 -4,961,438

S SPRINT NEXTEL CO 133,208,815 138,115,420 -4,906,605

MGM MGM MIRAGE 73,600,426 78,363,366 -4,762,940

RTN RAYTHEON CO 4,049,316 8,804,167 -4,754,851

STD BANCO SANTAN-ADR 7,469,870 12,056,787 -4,586,917

SVU SUPERVALU INC 13,305,164 17,834,968 -4,529,804

SCHW SCHWAB (CHARLES) 45,383,310 49,780,977 -4,397,667

STI SUNTRUST BANKS 34,458,160 38,844,800 -4,386,640

TD TORONTO DOM BANK 17,430,204 21,783,844 -4,353,640

XLP SPDR-CONS STAPLE 16,281,634 20,589,040 -4,307,406

KRE SPDR KBW REGIONA 38,008,007 42,303,461 -4,295,454

DOW DOW CHEMICAL 19,584,819 23,879,183 -4,294,364

STP SUNTECH POWE-ADR 17,344,830 21,555,490 -4,210,660

TZA SMALL CAP BEAR 3 3,670,028 7,658,566 -3,988,538

HOG HARLEY-DAVIDSON 30,907,807 34,834,898 -3,927,091

MO ALTRIA GROUP INC 64,905,754 68,821,302 -3,915,548

UNH UNITEDHEALTH GRP 9,161,940 13,062,611 -3,900,671

RCL ROYAL CARIBBEAN 23,907,206 27,636,136 -3,728,930

AHL ASPEN INSURANCE 4,404,154 7,967,385 -3,563,231

CIM CHIMERA INV CORP 13,249,230 16,779,169 -3,529,939

HOV HOVNANIAN ENT-A 18,264,200 21,642,871 -3,378,671

KR KROGER CO 14,376,449 17,699,413 -3,322,964

LYV LIVE NATION ENTE 5,235,212 8,536,113 -3,300,901

HOT STARWOOD HOTELS 22,645,571 25,922,224 -3,276,653

MI MARSHALL &ILSLEY 19,968,875 23,241,160 -3,272,285

KO COCA-COLA CO 16,770,737 20,024,979 -3,254,242

CAT CATERPILLAR INC 25,000,740 28,110,233 -3,109,493

GNW GENWORTH FINANCI 11,269,854 14,376,829 -3,106,975

Grafico NYSE- SHORT INTEREST

Tutto questo deve indurci a metterci repentinamente short? Direi proprio di no. Ma quantomeno ci fa capire che la situazione sta pian piano indirizzandosi verso una minore positività. E’ presto per fare date. Ma come detto in apertura, il target tecnico è vicino. Staremo a vedere.