Financial LINKS

http://rassegnastampa.mef.gov.it/mefeconomica/PDF/2010/2010-09-27/2010092716743945.pdf

“”RIPRESA LENTA, MEGLIO I BOND”” parla l’esperto che previde con esattezza le grandi fiammate dei prezzi negli anni 70

Yeahwn.. Good morning, qualche links per voi, come al solito un piccolo estratto dell’articolo e link per leggere (se siete interessati allo stesso)

19 fatti sulla deindustrializzaziione Americana:

http://economicsfreenews.blogspot.com/2010/09/19-facts-about-deindustrialization-of.html

The United States is rapidly becoming the very first “post-industrial” nation on the globe. All great economic empires eventually become fat and lazy and squander the great wealth that their forefathers have left them, but the pace at which America is accomplishing this is absolutely amazing. It was America that was at the forefront of the industrial revolution. It was America that showed the world how to mass produce everything from automobiles to televisions to airplanes. It was the great American manufacturing base that crushed Germany and Japan in World War II. But now we are witnessing the deindustrialization of America. Tens of thousands of factories have left the United States in the past decade alone. Millions upon millions of manufacturing jobs have been lost in the same time period. The United States has become a nation that consumes everything in sight and yet produces increasingly little. Do you know what our biggest export is today? Waste paper. Yes, trash is the number one thing that we ship out to the rest of the world as we voraciously blow our money on whatever the rest of the world wants to sell to us. The United States has become bloated and spoiled and our economy is now just a shadow of what it once was. Once upon a time America could literally outproduce the rest of the world combined. Today that is no longer true, but Americans sure do consume more than anyone else in the world. If the deindustrialization of America continues at this current pace, what possible kind of a future are we going to be leaving to our children?

I bond americani a lungo termine sono sulla rotta della bancorotta:

http://economicsfreenews.blogspot.com/2010/09/us-long-bonds-remain-train-wreck.html

Surging trend energy in bonds continues unabated since April 2010. REV(E), or trend energy, illustrates the strength of the surge. Trend energy as of August 2010 is approaching the all-time high in December 2008. This has been achieved while price remains roughly 20% below the all-time high. The divergence of trend energy with price only reinforces the power of the trend.
US Long Bonds ETF (TLT)

Sempre sui bond grafici sui rendimenti:

http://economicsfreenews.blogspot.com/2010/09/treasury-yields-in-perspective.html

Let’s take a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart below shows the 10 Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range has been astonishing. The stagflation that set in after the 1973 Oil Embargo was finally ended after Paul Volcker raised the FFR to 20.06%

Niente stampa di nuova FIAT moneta prima delle elezioni:

http://economicsfreenews.blogspot.com/2010/09/federal-reserve-is-not-going-qeii-until.html

There has been a lot of speculation about what the Federal Reserve will or will not do regarding quantitative easing (QE) in order to boost the economy. With the Obama administration constrained regarding fiscal policy, attention has turned to the Fed. However, I don’t believe the Fed is likely to do anything major until after the economy has weakened further, if only for political reasons.

The thinking is that the Fed can pump some money into the economy in order to prevent the economy from weakening. In my view, this thinking misses the point. First, QE is basically an asset swap and as such does not have an impact on the real economy. Second, the Fed is a political organization which treads lightly on politicized issues like quantitative easing.

Continuano i problemi per JP Morgan con i fallimenti delle case…:

http://financenewsoftheworldbis.blogspot.com/2010/09/here-they-come-thousands-of-jpmorgan.html

Fresh off the presses at Bloomberg:

JPMorgan Based Foreclosures on Faulty Documents, Lawyers Claim

JPMorgan Chase & Co. faces a legal challenge next month that could cast doubt on thousands of foreclosures after a mortgage executive at the bank said she didn’t verify documents used to justify home seizures.
Lawyers for a Palm Beach County, Florida, homeowner asked a judge to throw out a foreclosure as a penalty for misleading the court, according to attorney Tom Ice of Ice Legal PA. They’re citing a May 17 deposition in which the JPMorgan executive said she signed thousands of affidavits and documents supporting the New York-based bank’s claims without personally checking loan records. The court is scheduled to hear arguments Oct. 19.
The Chase Home Finance operation supervisor, Beth Ann Cottrell, said in May she was among eight managers who together sign about 18,000 documents a month, according to a transcript of her sworn deposition provided by Ice. Asked how they were prepared, she said she relied on other people at the firm.
“My review is more or less signing the document unless it’s questionable,” she said. That means, “somebody has a question and brings it to me and says, ‘Beth, can you take a look at this?’”

L’articolo tratta sulla possibilita che l’America voglia ridistribuire la ricchezza come la Svezia…:

http://financenewsoftheworldbis.blogspot.com/2010/09/are-americans-seeking-wealth.html

New research on perceptions of wealth in the US — from Michael Norton and Dan Ariely at Harvard Business School and Duke University, respectively – is worth a closer look. At first blush, it would seem that 92 percent of respondents rather live in a quasi-socialist economy more resembling Sweden than the US. The explanation they offer is that the gap between the rich and the poor has become far greater than surveyed Americans both think it is and would like it to be. Here are the findings, according to The Raw Story:

“…the study also found that respondents preferred Sweden’s model over a model of perfect income equality for everyone, ‘suggesting that Americans prefer some inequality to perfect equality, but not to the degree currently present in the United States,’ the authors state. Recent analyses have shown that income inequality in the US has grown steadily for the past three decades and reached its highest level on record, exceeding even the large disparities seen in the 1920s, before the Great Depression. Norton and Ariely estimate that the one percent wealthiest Americans hold nearly 50 percent of the country’s wealth, while the richest 20 percent hold 84 percent of the wealth.

E le banche continuano a fallire…:

http://financenewsoftheworldbis.blogspot.com/2010/09/banks-are-failing-at-record-pace-fdic.html

In the mainstream media, all the talk is about how the “recession” is over. But the truth is that our economic problems are far from over. In fact, the U.S. banking system is dying. U.S. banks continue to fail at a record pace. The FDIC list of problem banks continues to grow at an alarming pace. Loans and mortgages continue to go bad at an accelerating rate at banks across the United States. The truth is that we are in deep, deep trouble, and the vast majority of the American people do not even realize it. But the American people better wake up soon, because if the U.S. banking system dies, the American Dream is going to die along with it for tens of millions of Americans.

Festa grande per oro e argento:

http://financenewsoftheworld.blogspot.com/2010/09/gold-and-silver-chart-fiesta-at-toronto.html

I’m giving my presentation at the Cambridge House conference in Toronto today, and I don’t have enough time for all the charts I want to show. So, I’m putting some here to direct people to them later.

I had dinner with a bunch of very smart industry analysts last night. The general consensus is that gold is due for some kind of correction. I’m thinking a short-term correction, and I would use that as a buying opportunity. But if we’re all waiting for a pullback, that’s an example of groupthink, and the markets rarely reward groupthink. And that means a correction may not come when people ae expecting it.

Preparatevi per una guerra commerciale/monetaria tra la Cina e l’America:

http://financenewsoftheworld.blogspot.com/2010/09/prepare-for-currencytrade-wars-how.html

Patience of US legislators regarding the value of the Yuan has finally given out. Last Friday, Congress jumped into the fray after exceptionally harsh statements from Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, who up until now had always preached diplomacy. Here is a brief sequence of events.
Patience Runs Out
MarketWatch reports Patience runs out on quiet diplomacy on China currency.

Sept. 15, 2010
Patience appears to have run out in Washington for the standard White House approach that favors quiet diplomacy for dealing with China over the dispute over the value of its currency.
In testimony to the House Ways and Means Committee, a wide array of experts said that quiet diplomacy has essentially been a failure. The only debate at the hearing was what new approach should be tried.

Agenda per la settimana entrante:

http://financenewsoftheworld.blogspot.com/2010/09/weekly-schedule-for-september-26th.html

The previous post is the Summary for Week ending Sept 25th
The key economic releases this week are the ISM Manufacturing index on Friday (and the regional releases earlier in the week), and the personal income and spending report for August (also on Friday). For housing, the key economic release is the S&P/Case-Shiller Home price index on Tuesday. There will be several Fed speeches this week to review for possible hints on QE2.

—– Monday, Sept 27th —–

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August). This is a composite index of other data.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for September. The Texas survey showed a slight contraction last month (at -0.1%), and is expected to show contraction again in September. These regional surveys are important now since it appears manufacturing is slowing (or contracting like the Philly Fed survey showed on Sept 16th).

mariothegreat@finanza,

Una cortesia Mario, una volta avevi postato un link di finanza israeliano che parlava delle 10 sorprese negative per l’economia, potresti rimandarlo.
Grazie

mariothegreat@finanza,

Mario, mi rivolgo a te ma anche a Dream circa i contenuti delle varie recensioni che pubblicate sul blog e innanzitutto voglio esprimervi il mio ringraziamento; se avete avuto occasione di leggere i miei sporadici commenti, avrete capito che anch’io sono piuttosto pessimista circa l’evoluzione dello scenario.
Ma ci sono, giustamente, perchè tutte le opinioni sono valide, alcuni partecipanti al blog che esprimono una visione più ottimista della nostra e ritengono più probabile una ripresa dell’economia (alcuni confondono la ripresa delle borse con la ripresa dell’economia, ma su questo aspetto preferisco sorvolare).
La mia domanda è la seguente: se avete occasione di trovare articoli con toni positivi e, in tal caso, sempre che siano sostenuti da valide argomentazioni e non da semplici sparate, potreste evidenziarli????

xavier61@finanza: mariothegreat@finanza, Una cortesia Mario, una volta avevi postato un link di finanza israeliano che parlava delle 10 sorprese negative per l’economia, potresti rimandarlo.Grazie  

Se mi dice almeno la data approssimitiva vedo di trovarlo, leggo centinaia di report al giorno…

paolo41,

Ciao, il bello che cerco di postarne… a sono veramente pochi… questo ha fatto accendere una lucetta sul mio capolino, visto che la stragrande maggioranza dei commenti sono negativi, non e’ che sia tutto orchestrato per non far entrare la massa nel trend positivo, poi quando avranno raggiunto un piu’ 200% giu a fare mattanza….

mariothegreat@finanza,

Mi pare giugno il giorno non me lo ricordo.
Grazie comunque

Dream Theater,

Probabilmente mi confondi con qualcun’altro, comunque io non ho intenzione di dare fastidio a nessuno. 😀

xavier61@finanza,

Mooolto difficile, probabilmente e’ questo, ma non sono certo
ciao:
1. The Collapse Of The Euro- With Germany having such a different economy than the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) the weaker economies of the Euro region had a choice- to leave the Euro or to suffer massive deflation (since prices were too high and devaluation impossible due to the fact that they didn’t have control on the currency). Massive deflation meant budget deficits north of 10% of GDP and with no monetization possible the sovereign debt market of the PIIGS started to collapse. Some countries tried to cut the budget, which brought severe civil unrest while the economy continued to deteriorate. Others refused to physically reform which resulted in further revolts in their sovereign bond markets. The first domino to fall was Greece- when the yield on the 10 year government bond reached 8% percent it was clear that without a bailout from Germany they where bust, and bust they went. Like after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the collapse of Greece caused a general panic in the markets, with government bonds of the rest of the PIIGS collapsing since it was clear that Germany will not bail them out. European banks refused to lend to each other and the havoc was over only when the rest of the PIIGS left the currency.

2. China Bluff Exposed, Regime Overthrown- China’s communist regime continued to print money, lending it to everybody that wanted and didn’t want it. The giant housing, infrastructure, and manufacturing bubble came to a violent crash when the debts where not paid and inflation forced the authorities to tighten despite massive unemployment. The combination of high inflation and high unemployment in the urban centers took the people to the streets. The Chinese citizens refused to accept state intervention in the economy and their personal life demanding more personal and economic freedom resulting in prolonged civil unrest which almost reached a full scaled civil war. The collapse of the Chinese regime and economy resulted in a colossal bust for commodity prices, albeit temporarily, and caused a severe recession in Australia, Brazil, Russia, Argentina, and the Gulf States.

3. Despite China’s Collapse Commodity Prices Turn Up Again- Just a year after China’s colossal bust commodity prices resumed their up trend. General scarcity combined with large physical deficits and money printing worldwide caused commodity prices to go up despite a weak world economy. Investors and eventfully the public started to seriously question the legitimacy of fiat currencies around the world.

4. Pakistan Collapses- The nuclear state fell victim of various terrorist groups who eventually succeeded in overthrowing the regime. The country falled into a bloody civil war. The U.S military, in a planned operation which was planned during the Bush years took control of the military facilities and dismantled them. The civil war affected India, which increasingly suffered from terrorist attacks throughout the decade. The collapse of Pakistan symbolized a new phase in the global “War on Terror” with the pro- American Gulf States becoming the main target.

5. A Third Party Emerges In The United States- When Obama’s first and last term ended the American public was fed up with anything that had to do with the elite- Wall Street, the big banks, Congress, the Senate, the Federal Reserve and both of the big parties. As a result a third party emerged which managed to get a large amount of seats in both houses. The party’s candidate for president got 10% of the votes in 2012 and won the election in 2016. The third party fundamentally changed the way politics was done in Washington and resulted in a large change in United States foreign policy. A lot of countries where left to deal with their problems alone. At the beginning, this policy caused havoc and even chaos in different countries around the world which suddenly were shocked by the shortage of American financial and military aid.

6. Top Officials in the Federal Reserve Criminally Investigated- A silent change that started after the financial collapse of 2008 gained momentum with the bill to audit the Fed. After the bill was approved everyone could know who got all the money that Ben Bernanke printed during the great panic days of 2008. The public was outraged and demanded an investigation of the Federal Reserve activities throughout the last 100 years. A special investigation was held and millions of pages where opened to public’s eye reveling very close ties between the Federal Reserve and the financial elite of the United Stated dating back to 1913. A special committee of supreme court judges announced that part of the activities held by top fed officially where ” criminal by no doubt”

7. The Dollar remains strong via foreign fiat currencies but loses to gold, eventually the United States and then the world goes back to a Gold Standard- First it was the collapse of the Euro, then the collapse of China, after came the crisis in the emerging world and the commodity producing nations, and finally civil unrest around the globe. In the second decade of the 21st century the world discovered that the United Stated, with all its problems and weaknesses is still the safest heaven there is. But against Gold it lost big time. Despite a weak economy gold and other commodities continued to trend higher and when the public joined the trade it demanded a Gold Standard. The President, encouraged by Wall Street large banks tried to do the Roosevelt scheme, attempting to outlaw the ownership of gold on a large scale and halting the trading and selling of the precious metal. That was enough for the angry public which thanks to the internet revolution was much more informed than in the 1930’s. A new president was elected in 2016 and a Gold Standard was established.

8. The internet moves to live broadcasting, TV stations and cable networks follow the fate of newspapers- During the second decade of the 21st century the technology of broadcasting the PC output on the flat screen TV created a whole new communication environment. Tens of thousands of broadcasts were uploaded on the net on a daily basis allowing the web surfers to choose between thousands of news programs, financial and economic broadcasts, homemade reality shows, and local sitcoms.

9. The United States Remains World’s Strongest Economy- In the second decade of the 21st century the United States was suffering. The economy was stagnating and was bouncing in and out from recessions and depressions. The military was involved in countless wars, and the personal and economic cost became unbearable. Beside that, the country suffered from record high crime rates, social unrest and political turmoil. But, the rest of the world was far worst. Europe has disintegrated, China has collapsed, Russia remained a corrupt and failed state and India remained a poor and corrupt country fighting terrorist groups. The world discovered that without the U.S locomotive the world economy couldn’t grow.
10. Japan’s Government Bond Market Implodes- The Japanese government and economy got used to record low interest rates. But the combination of government debt reaching 230% of GDP and the ageing population cashing in via the pension funds on the government bonds caused a total implosion. In only 2 months the yield on the 30 year government bond went up to 4%, causing a panic selling and forcing the government to finally cut the deficit. The deficit cuts where not enough, and Bank of Japan did what it knew best- printed money. Only this time, to there big surprise it resulted in inflation, and just ordinary inflation-hyperinflation. The markets discovered that they were worried about the wrong country. Japan became the first modern country in 21st century to suffer from hyperinflation

11. New Economic Term Developed, A Yo-Yo Depression- Throughout the first 15 years of the 21st century investors and economists were debating heavily upon the economic environment. Is it deflation, inflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? Eventually, a new term emerged- Yo-Yo depression which describes an economic environment in which the economy moves violently every year or so from inflation to deflation.

mariothegreat@finanza,

Esatto, grazie mille