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Cambridge Heart – CAMH – non per deboli di cuore
Scritto il 2 Febbraio 2006 alle 12:01 da
Titolo volatile e speculativo. E’ una società che potrebbe diventare una super performante (settore dell’incredibile STEREOTAXIS) . Allego l’articolo apparso sul sito del Nasdaq:
A little known company in this industry named Cambridge Heart, Inc (CAMH) produces a machine called the Microvolt T-Wave. This machine can test the patient’s risk of suffering from a Sudden Cardiac Death, which accounts for around 450,000 deaths a year. Basically this new machine can decide if a doctor should prescribe a defibrillator made by Guidant (GDT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Boston Scientific (BSX), or Medtronic (MDT). Now comes the dollar bills part. Aggressive doctors, before this test, would prescribe an implant at the slightest of symptoms, to the glee of the big names. Doctors were making money on the surgeries, the implant makers were making money on the implants, and the patient was cured of the problem for the most part. This has occurred over the past couple of years. It was a win, win, win situation. But there is always a loser for every winner, and the loser was the government. Most of the heart patients getting such implants went the entire five-to-seven-year life of the device without ever needing to be shocked to restart their hearts. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) was footing the bill on some of these unneeded surgeries, which were costing enormous amounts. The defibrillator alone costs around $30,000 dollars.
Well, with the new T-Wave test, Medicare is looking to reduce the number of unwarranted surgeries. On December 22nd, Medicare announced, “Microvolt T-Wave Alternans (MTWA) diagnostic testing is covered for the evaluation of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death, only when the spectral analytic method is used.” So basically, Medicare said that they will cover the cost of the test, which it hopes will greatly reduce the number of surgical implants, much to the dismay of the big names, but a huge catalyst for Cambridge. So what’s the holdup? Well the device now has to go through a 30 Day Testing period with physicians who will report back to the CMS their comments on the test. Then, 60 days later, there will be a final finding by CMS. But Medtronic, Guidant and St. Jude are all supporting trials studying the effectiveness of Cambridge Heart’s test. They are seeing the test as a speed bump to this lucrative market and have urged the government to treat it as experimental rather than a basis for choosing appropriate treatment. The big guys are obviously scared and Meditronic has even hedged its standing by acquiring 3.2M shares in Cambridge last February. But it looks as if the final decision will be made by the doctors and as we all know, money talks. Doctors testing this machine might be swayed by the big names. What Cambridge does have going for it, though, is that the test most likely has a larger profit margin for doctors than the actual surgery itself. Most of the profits on the defibrillators go to the large companies and take hours of surgery to be installed, but the tests are conducted at a cost of $350 to $400 dollars and take 30 minutes to complete. The machines cost $30,000 dollars a piece and can conduct hundreds of tests, versus a defibrillator, which also costs around $30,000 and can be implanted in only one person. After the results of the findings, we will all know if these machines will be available in every heart clinic in America. If they are, expect many analysts to begin to cut their views on the size of the implant market. The players are set, bets are being made, and the winner will reward investors very handsomely over the next few years.
Ps: a 1.06 $ scatta lo speculative buy
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