Outlook 2010: forecast & previews

Scritto il alle 15:10 da Danilo DT

market-outlook-2010

In attesa del conteggio finale del nostro piccolo sondaggio indipendente sulle previsioni 2010sempre in merito all’outlook 2010, tramite il sito Marketoracle, abbiamo estratto un bel po’ di analisi e pareri su come potrebbe andare questo benedetto 2010.

Per chi ha tempo e voglia, credo sia un bel compendio che probabilmente, alla fine, vi creerà ancora più confusione mentale di quanto ne avevate prima. Ma, scherzi a parte, dà la possibilità di poter leggere ed analizzare anche altri punti di vista e pareri.

Global Quantitative Easing to Drive Across Gold, Silver and Stocks Bull Markets During 2010

By: Clive_Maund

The year ended with a typical light volume”Santa Claus” rally. Understandably there is considerable trepidation about what the New Year will bring after the prolonged rally from last March and the known fact that would-be sellers have been holding off in recent weeks, waiting for the New Year to sell for tax reasons. It doesn’t look good, especially given the rather scary sudden drop in the last hour of trading before the Christmas holiday.

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Financial Markets Outlook 2010, Wealth Protection and Investment Insurance in Unstable Times

By: Elite_E_Services

We are not providing the solution, we are asking the question, how to protect wealth in uncertain times?  The financial crisis has changed the lives of millions.  One of them, Glen Pizzolorusso, used to be a subprime mortgage broker making more than $100,000 a month:

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Sovereign Debt Crisis Could Cripple the Euro During 2010

By: Bryan_Rich

For the better part of 2009 the U.S. dollar was the world’s most hated currency. But it’s looking increasingly likely the tables could turn in 2010. And the euro could take over that unenviable title

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Which Materials ETF Investing 2010

By: Richard_Shaw

If you chose to supplement your sector-diversified core US equities stock holdings with a diversified materials stocks ETF, which one is best for you?

There are nine possibilities, of which three, and maybe four, make sense at this time for our purposes and possibly for yours. Those exchange-traded funds are XLB, IYM, VAW and maybe MXI. They have more favorable profiles considering these three attributes:

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Presidential Cycle Impact on the Stock Market 2010

By: Sy_Harding

In last week’s column I discussed academic studies that confirm the remarkable consistency of the market’s annual seasonal pattern, how with few exceptions markets in the majority of countries tend to make most of their gains in the winter months, and experience most of their serious corrections and bear market declines between May and November.

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Are You Ready for a Stock Market Crash of 2010?

By: Oakshire_Financial

In last week’s column I discussed academic studies that confirm the remarkable consistency of the market’s annual seasonal pattern, how with few exceptions markets in the majority of countries tend to make most of their gains in the winter months, and experience most of their serious corrections and bear market declines between May and November.

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UK Economy GDP Growth Forecast 2010 and 2011, The Stealth Election Boom

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The British Economy as with other developed economies entered 2009 in recession and on the brink of Depression, after unlimited bailouts , hitting the Quantitative Easing panic button and running a huge 15% of GDP budget deficit, the UK economy has managed to claw its way back out of recession as the Q4 data will show when released during late January 2010.

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Why I am Bullish on India Economy and Stock Market 2010

By: G_Abraham

India is 1/10 th the size of US economy and EU economy and yet holds far more promise and resillience than both these economies combined. While the world focuses on Chinese growth albeit with skepticism and caution at the numbers being thrown out, no such aspersions have ever been cast at India. Indian growth has been a transparent and extremely well led, consumer and infra story.

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Is the U.S. Housing Market Recovery for Real?

By: Martin Hutchinson

Existing home sales surprised the markets by rising 7.4% to an annual rate of 6.54 million units in November, the highest since February 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That’s only 10% below the all-time peak in 2005.

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U.S. Dollar and Treasury Bonds At Risk Following Fannie and Freddie Debt Monetization

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The background noise has been considerable. The US Congress, the august body that often passes legislation without reading it, evaluates a new initiative to reinstitute the Glass Steagall Act. Pass it, don’t read it! Great idea! In the wisdom from post-Depression seven decades ago, the same Congress imposed firewall separation among the commercial banks, the brokerage houses, and the insurance firms in order to prevent systemic financial sector failure. That is precisely what happened in the last two years, without proper recognition or diagnosis, except by this and some analysts. Insolvent systems do not spring back to life with grandiose infusions of phony money and complete covers for fraud. They remain insolvent.

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United States Debt Ridden Road to Perdition

By: James_Quinn

Decade after decade, Americans have voted for intellectually and morally bankrupt dullards that promise them more goodies under the tree. Every day is Christmas in Washington DC. Long-term means the next election cycle to these traitors of the Republic. I have written ad nauseum about the impending financial cataclysm that awaits our nation. I have spent countless hours documenting the unsustainable path of our politicians’ financial decisions and lack of courage in addressing the forthcoming tragedy that grows closer by the day. Our political system is so corrupt and dysfunctional that there is absolutely no chance that our path will be altered at the voting booth. Government programs are fashioned, but never finished. The IRS tax code consists of 3.4 million words covering 7,500 pages of payoffs to business lobbyists. Simplicity is a virtue

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Marc Faber on What to Expect for Financial Markets 2010

By: Marc Faber

The INVESTMENT MAGAZINE reports about Investment Guru Marc Fabers’s vision of 2010

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Stock Market, Commodity and Dollar Forecasts for 2010

By: Tony_Sagami

Predicting the future is not easy, but at the end of last year I made five for 2009. How’d I do? Pretty darn good if I say so myself.

In this column, I’ll review my 2009 market predictions and more importantly, tell you what’s in store for 2010 and how to play the markets.

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Low Volume Stocks Bear Market Rally and the Real Estate Bust 2010

By: Claus_Vogt

One of the most basic technical rules says that sound stock market rallies are accompanied by high and rising volume. By contrast, bear market rallies are characterized by low and falling activity.

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John Hussman Says Stock Market Bulls Dancing on the Edge of a Cliff

By: Mike_Shedlock

Last week, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 dropped below 2%, versus a historical average closer to double that level. While part of the reason for the paucity of yield in the current market can be explained by the 20% plunge in dividend payouts over the past year, as financial companies have cut or halted dividends to conserve cash, the fact is that current payouts are not at all out of line with their historical relationship to revenues, and even a full recovery of the past year’s dividend cuts would still leave the yield at a paltry 2.5%. The October 1987 crash occurred from a yield of 2.65%, which was, at the time, the lowest yield observed in history, matched only by the 1972 peak prior to the brutal 1973-74 bear market

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Stock Market Forecast 2010

By: Jon D. Markman

I have been surprised to see the air thick with pessimism in recent weeks. Not so much the stock market, where the sentiment indexes show the bulls dominating the bears by slightly more than 52%. But among the general public.

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Why is the U.S. Dollar Rising, Treasury Bond Market Failure 2010?

By: G_Abraham

Now am not a trader nor do I rely on charts but those who do, tell me that dollar has broken a “falling wedge” and is all set to rally a great deal in the coming weeks. Most reaserch houses have put in dollar targets of anywhere between 78 and 83.

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Agri-Food’s Investing to Profit From China and India Economic and Consumer Growth

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Living in Florida, as this author does, often comes with minor problems. As one of the biggest batches of cold, snowy winter storms ravages North America, records of all kinds are being broken. Dallas, as an example, had a white Christmas for the first time in 80 years. But, the UK also has problems. Winter weather there may have damaged the Brussels sprouts crop. Is that not real suffering? Relative to all that, what is our problem in Florida? Cannot remember where we put that pair of socks last year.

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U.S. Treasury Bond Market Crash Not Stocks the Big Story of 2010

By: Graham_Summers

Let’s pretend the US is a company.

For starters, this company has a massive debt problem. The official number is $12 trillion and counting, which is roughly the equivalent of one year’s annual production. On the surface, that’s not TOO bad.

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Why Gold Will be the “Greatest Trade Ever”

By: Peter Krauth

Forget about all the forecasts being made for 2010. Here’s my prediction for 2015: An entirely new name – John A. Paulson – will grace the coveted top of the annual Forbes billionaires list.

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Gold Pullback to Support, A Historic Perspective

By: Howard_Katz

Today we stand on the threshold of one of the great moves in financial history.  The signal comes as what is called a pullback to support.  It will be my goal in this article to convey to you the immense power of such a formation.  So simple, yet fraught with such potential for profit.

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UK CPI Inflation Forecast 2010, Imminent and Sustained Spike Above 3%

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The UK inflation forecast for 2010 is first of a three part series of in depth analysis as part of the inflation mega-trend, with UK interest rates and GDP growth forecast to follow in the coming week.

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Gold The Greatest Currency Trade of the Millennium

By: Chris Weber

Even though gold has been in a correction during these last few months, it is important to step back and see how it has out-performed every other currency since this decade, century, and millennium began.

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Financial Markets and Economic Forecasts 2010, Recovery or More Crisis?

By: William_R_Thomson

Experts offer differing views, with some predicting 2010 to be a difficult year and others saying it will see recovery continuing

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Staggered Return to Global Economic Growth For 2010

By: Northern Trust

We are ushering in 2010 on a note of guarded hope, unlike the dawn of 2009 when great apprehension about the global economy was the predominant theme. Three broad aspects stand out as the curtain closes on 2009. First, recession is now a matter of history. Second, massive financial sector blowups are mostly behind us, but smaller yet significant tempests cannot be ruled out.

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E ancora…

From Bloomberg: Krugman Sees 30-40% Chance of U.S. Recession in 2010

Direttamente dalla Federal Reserve…  Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke: The Economic Outlook

Infine questa interessante presentazione : Economic Recovery And The Coming Financial Crisis

Sono convinto che, con tutto questo materiale da leggere, domani, giorno della Santissima Befana, non avrete di che annoiarvi. Io invece, darò il mio contributo e farò girare l’economia… O meglio… ci penserà mia moglie…

Buona lettura!

DT

Fonte: Marketoracle


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